The U.S. invasion of Iraq has increased, not decreased, the terror threat, according to the “National Intelligence Estimate” on “Trends in global Terrorism” released in the New York Times yesterday. The U.S. has taken the fight to them; they have taken the fight to us.
American forces are becoming fragmented in various deployments within Iraq. At some later date, they may be able to hide in the fortresses being built throughout Iraq. Halliburton/KBR are building Fort Dick, Fort Condi, Fort Rummy, and Fort Wolfie. Until they can hide, the Americans may be overrun in some outposts and left without supplies or reinforcements. America can mount a Berlin Airlift to provide some support for some time, but not forever.
Black Hawk Down writ large may develop. America may be forced to flee Iraq whether the civilian military leadership decides to cut and run or is forced to cut and run. Squads and platoons may not make the departing flights. Recall Saigon in April, 1975. The prospect of a humiliating defeat and hasty departure grows every day. America must declare victory and redeploy with purposeful dignity to friendlier soil or the United States. The collective military must go on r & r to have any chance of projecting a military and a diplomatic presence in the region and in the world in the near future.
There is no end to the unexpected twists and unintended consequences in the Mideast. Baghdad could become Hussein City in the next ten years. Tourists may have their picture taken in front of the plinth that supported the Saddam statue. The son or daughter of an Iraqi refuge may be the valedictorian at West Point. Or more likely Iraq will be divided with regions incorporated into the Shiite Caliphate and into the Sunni Caliphate and into an expanded Kurdistan region. The United States should not try to dictate the future in Iraq because it can not dictate the future in Iraq. The world will watch Americas defeat on CNN and tape it on TiVo. It is time to think clearly. It is time to get out.
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