Archive for the Derivatives Category

WW E / III:  Two Weeks To Flatten The Country.  Oh, And Happy St. Patrick’s Day! (March 16, 2026)

Posted in China, Derivatives, Iran, Isreal, Oil, Trump, War, World War E, World War III, World's Reserve Currency on March 16, 2026 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “Six years ago to this very Monday, those in power proclaimed they needed only two weeks to flatten the curve.  Trump is now proclaiming that he needs only two weeks to flatten Iran.”

J          “Looks like Fort Israel may be flattened within a few weeks.  Everything is falling flat.”

. . .

J          “The two-year-old narcissist threw a tantrum and a hissy fit in public.  He does not play well with others.  And others are not willing to play well with him.”

K          “His behavior is so infra dig at a time when he is digging a deeper hole.”

J          “No one ever told him:  ‘When you are in a hole, quit digging.’”

K          “The sycophants and court jesters around him do not have the courage or the incentive to tell him that the puppet looks like a buffoon.  He went way off script when he became the first American President to acknowledge publicly that Israel has nuclear weapons and then surmised that Israel would not likely use them.”

J          “He is not operating with a functioning frontal lobe.”

K          “Time for the Twenty-Fifth Amendment?

. . .

J          “Most diplomacy and other shenanigans go on behind closed doors.  However, based on some official statements, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Australia and South Korea suggest they may not sail their vessels into the buzz saw.  They are able to look at the current AIS data and take a hint from the heavily-fortified Abraham L. and Gerald F. and supporting entourage of vessels that are staying way offshore and far from threats.”

K          “What if Trump issued a direct order to the U.S. Navy to sail into the Strait?  Although the order is irrational and suicidal, the order is not patently illegal under United States or international law.” 

. . .

J          “Those in power are shifting the narrative to support a draft.”

K          “On the Solstice, December 21, 2023, Frank Murkowski of Alaska delivered a present to the youth of America.  We are coming for you and taking your liberty and likely terminating your life.”

J          “Oh, And Have A Happy Christmas!  The soccer dad you mentioned will drive the kids to the induction center and swap soccer cleats for combat boots.”

. . .

K          “I must confess some surprise at how unaware and indifferent the public is to the horrors of the war and the likely devastating economic, political, and social repercussions in the next few weeks and months.  The indifference reflects a populace of zombies just trying to crawl through the day without looking up or making a commitment.”

J          “One needs to understand and cannot forget that the public is objectively overwhelmed by events.  Few have the emotional software and the intellectual hardware to make any sense of what is transpiring.”

. . .

K          “Someone could modify ‘The Charge of the Light Brigade’ into ‘The Charge of the Lighter Barge’ to provide some poetic flair to the despair.”

J          “The Strait now appears to be a toll road open to those with Yuan or to those who pay allegiance to those who issue Yuan.”

. . .  

[See “Frustrated by Failure, an Unhinged Trump Begins to Tilt as Hormuz Standoff Heats Up” by Simplicius at “Simplicius76” on March 15, 2026.]

[See the e-commentary on the strategic, geographic and economic choke point that is the Strait at Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019) and So It Was The Red Sea And Credit Suisse.  Who’s Counting?  (Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019)) (February 12, 2024).  See the special edition uploaded on derivatives on St. Patrick’s Day three years ago this week at Special Edition.  Deciphering Derivatives.  Oh, And Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! (March 17, 2023).  The first rumblings of a draft are discussed more than two years ago at Le Draft.  And A Day Of Remembrance.  Oh, And Happy Presidents’ Day! (February 19, 2024).] 

Bumper stickers of the week:

FAFO

Karma

“When you are in a hole, quit digging.”

“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn’t become a king.  The palace becomes a circus.”  Ancient Turkish proverb.

Another Vietnam

WW E / III:  When Lies Fail (March 9, 2026)

Posted in Middle East, Iran, War, Oil, Trump, World War E, World War III, Derivatives, Isreal on March 9, 2026 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “Everyone is lying.  But this time, some truth will slither out soon.”

J          “Trying to tell, let alone convince, someone that he or she is not really waiting in a lengthy gas line to pay ten dollars for a gallon of gas will take a heaping dollop of Bernay’s Sauce.”

K          “While heading off to disgorge the kids at the military induction center.”

. . .

K          “The USA has had naval superiority for decades.  Does it matter now?  The USA has had air superiority for decades.  Does it matter now?”

J          “Who has drone superiority now?  The fundamental nature of war has changed in two big leaps.  First, the use of drones in the Armenia and Azerbaijan war in 2020 voided so many legacy weapons.  Second, hiding and moving the drones in mobile innocuous appearing civilian vehicles and using them on civilian infrastructure is a game changer.  Technology and technique are rapidly evolving.”

K          “When you first noted the development, I thought the President should have used readily available and unchallenged legal authority to ramp up a very quiet ‘Manhattan’ style project to produce drones.  Instead, the government insisted on relying on old technicity and outdated strategy.”

J          “Maybe.  The future of war is laser technology guided by AI.  The USA may be ahead in the race.  However, governments tend to be secretive about such programs.”

K          “Time to return to reading ‘Aviation Week and Space Technology’ along with the Sunday paper.”

. . . 

K          “It is ‘ISTAR’ [Intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance] versus ‘ISTAR’ now.  Who has better eyes and ears?  We are seeing and hearing in very close to real time.”

J          “The USA used its precision ISTAR to direct a missile strike at the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school for girls in Minab, near the Strait of Hormuz.  At least 175 people were killed, according to Iranian officials.  Most of them were children.  USA.  USA.  USA.” 

. . .

J          “The ability of AI to create entirely new realties has so advanced in just the last year.  Nothing is believable.  Except the price at the pump.”

. . . 

K          “So much is changing and likely collapsing.  The U.S. Treasuries are being swapped for gold.  This thing known as the Japanese carry trade seems to be blowing up.  And Japan may soon run out of fuel.”

J          “The things known as the Repo trade and private equity and private credit seem to be blowing up.”

. . .

K          “The great philosopher Michael Tyson observed that ‘Everyone has a plan ‘till they get punched in the mouth.’  Israel and the USA did not even have a plan other than to kill, kill, kill, kill, and kill.”

J          “They are all getting punched in the mouth.”

K          “I do have a hunch who will throw the last punch.  And we are now blessed with the ability to bet on outcomes today.”

. . .

K          “The USA has never fought a war against a peer country since Russia resolved the Second World War back in ’45.  The US has lost all but a few skirmishes against some cub scouts since then.”

J          “There will be dragons.”

. . .

[See the e-commentary on the threat to Treasuries and the likelihood that the Treasury will simply lie about the sales at Holographic Treasury Rates?  The 500 Trillion Asset Steal?  And Then The Great Taking?  Oh, And Happy IRS Day! (April 14, 2025), the consequences of escalating militarily at U.S.A. Escalates Trump’s War With Russia.  Trump’s Budget Turbocharges National Debt (June 2, 2025), the unbroken string of lies at Afghanistan:  The Usual Lies And Liars.  Oh, And Happy I.F. Stone’s Birthday! (December 16, 2019) and a survey of American foreign policy at American Foreign Policy:  1945 –  ____ (July 24, 2023).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

“Everyone has a plan ‘till they get punched in the mouth.”  Michael Tyson

Dragon < Eagle > Bruin; Dragon + Bruin > Eagle; Eagle + Bruin > Dragon

“To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.”  Henry Kissinger

When considering the reliability of information provided to you by the government of the United States of America, it is important that you recall and reflect:

[Big Bumper:]

They fibbed about Viet Nam.

They fibbed about Cambodia.

They fibbed about Laos.

They fibbed about Cuba.

They fibbed about El Salvador.

They fibbed about Nicaragua.

They fibbed about Guatemala.

They fibbed about Panama.

They fibbed about Honduras.                                                 

They fibbed about Venezuela.

They fibbed about Chile.

They fibbed about the Spanish American War.

They fibbed about the Mexican War.

They fibbed about Pearl Harbor.

They fibbed about 9/11.

They fibbed about Osama bin Laden.

They fibbed about Afghanistan.

They fibbed about Kuwait.

They fibbed about Iraq.

They fibbed about Saddam Hussein.

They fibbed about Libya.

They fibbed about Muammar Gaddafi.

They are fibbing about Yemen.

They are fibbing about Somalia.

They are fibbing about Sudan.

They are fibbing about Syria.

They are fibbing about Palestine.

They are fibbing about Iran.

They are fibbing about Ukraine.

They are fibbing about Niger.

They are fibbing about the War on Terror.

They are fibbing.

They do not seem to be telling the truth.

Things really did not turn out so super in Nicaragua, Grenada, Panama, Haiti, Bosnia, Serbia, Somalia, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Pakistan, Iraq and Syria, but who is counting?

For four score and one years, the USA has engaged in an unbroken war of terror against the world.

Israel And USA Ignite WW E / III:  Trump’s War® (March 2, 2026)

Posted in Derivatives, Iran, Isreal, Middle East, Oil, Trump, War, World War E, World War III on March 2, 2026 by e-commentary.org

. . .

J          “Bad idea.”

K          “My constant fear. It was only a matter of time.”

. . .

K          “Trump promised no forever wars.  He lied. There are no two ways.”

J          “Trump promised no regime change.  He lied.  The two year old narcissist only knows how to lie and to rant and to rave and to deceive.”

. . .

K          “A friend of a sardonic disposition proffered the hypothesis that the Epstein Goons are using war in part fortuitously to divert attention from the Epstein revelations.”

J          “It promises to be a long war.”

. . .

K          “I believe our friend Sun Tzu observed:  ‘If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.  If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.  If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. We do not know.”

J          “That skill requires two traits that are not American:  Self-awareness and understanding.  And a third. Intellectually curious. The U.S. may be its own worst enemy.”

. . .

K          “Wesley Clark reminded us that the U.S. plan was to take out seven countries in five years.  Iran is the only country left standing.”

J          “It is existential for Iran.  Iran intends to exist.  That truth requires understanding.”

K          “It is a 2500 year old rich and diverse culture taking on a not yet 250 year old consumer strip mall that once showed such great promise.”

. . .

K          “One word:  The Strait of Hormuz.”

J          “Damn straight.”

. . .

[See the e-commentary at Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019), So It Was The Red Sea And Credit Suisse.  Who’s Counting?  (Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019)) (February 12, 2024), Special Edition.  Deciphering Derivatives.  Oh, And Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! (March 17, 2023), World’s Reserve Currency War I = Cold War 2.0 = WW III (?) (September 8, 2014) and Le Dollar – World’s Reserve Currency? (November 28, 2011).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.  If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.  If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”  Sun Tzu, The Art of War

“We’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and finishing off Iran.”  Retired U.S. General Wesley Clark said that shortly after the September 11 attacks after a Pentagon officer told him about a proposed U.S. military plan to remove governments in seven countries within five years

“‘Operation Epic Fury’ because ‘Operation Epstein Diversion’ didn’t sound warfightery enough.”  Keith Olbermann

Not Derivatives Again: Japan? (August 5, 2024)

Posted in Derivatives on August 5, 2024 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “Percolating.”

J          “Boiling.”

. . .

[Read “How Unelected Regulators Unleashed the Derivatives Monster – and How It Might Be Tamed” by Ellen Brown, the recipient of the Third Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 8, 2018), at “ellenbrown.com” dated August 4, 2024.]

[See the e-commentary at Special Edition.  Deciphering Derivatives.  Oh, And Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! (March 17, 2023), Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019) and So It Was The Red Sea And Credit Suisse.  Who’s Counting?  (Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019)) (February 12, 2024).]

Bumper sticker of the week:

The Derivatives Monster:  Coming To A Town Near You

So It Was The Red Sea And Credit Suisse.  Who’s Counting?  (Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019)) (February 12, 2024)

Posted in Banks and Banking System, Derivatives, Trade on February 12, 2024 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “The Red Sea rather than the Strait of Hormuz.  Big difference.  Who’s counting.”

J          “A Swiss bank rather than a German bank.  Big difference.  Who’s counting.”

. . .

J          “You were right.  Different bottleneck; same strategy.  A motley group of characters are putting a few dents in a few ships and fundamentally transforming international shipping and commercial transactions.” 

K          “You were right.  The Swiss banking regulators forced UBS to acquire Credit Suisse by taking money away from the bondholders and giving it to the stockholders.  That breaches one of the Fundamental Rules of Business and Commerce.  They cannot even strong arm a shotgun wedding legally.”

. . .

J          “And on this continent, the banking system collapsed last year but was artificially and illegally propped up by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, at least for a while.”

K          “Seems that everything involving banking is always done illegally.  When the Swiss and the Germans . . . and the Americans . . . are unable to run banks profitable, we are all in trouble.”

. . .

K          “When does the derivatives market explode?”

J          “You can say that again.  When does the derivatives market explode?”

. . .

[See the e-commentary at Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019), Special Edition.  Deciphering Derivatives.  Oh, And Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! (March 17, 2023), Too Much Dirt; Too Few Rugs. Repurchase Agreements (September 23, 2019) and The Economic Equinox:  Half Light; Half Dark? (September 25, 2023).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Coming to a planet near you

There are two kinds of vessels in the Navy:  submarines and targets.

You have to be accurate every time.  Your adversary only has to be accurate once.

Special Edition.  Deciphering Derivatives.  Oh, And Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! (March 17, 2023)

Posted in Derivatives on March 17, 2023 by e-commentary.org

[See “The Looming Quadrillion Dollar Derivatives Tsunami” by Ellen Brown, the recipient of the Third Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 8, 2018), in “www.ellenbrown.com” dated March 13, 2023 and “The Next Bomb to Go Off in the Banking Crisis Will Be Derivatives” by Pam Mertens and Russ Mertens, the recipients of the Fifth Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 12, 2020), in www.WallStreetOnParade.com” dated March 16, 2023.]

[See the interview and transcription of the interview by Ben Norton with Michael Hudson, the recipient of the Seventh Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 10, 2022), in “Michael Hudson Talks to Ben Norton About SVB and Bank Failures” with an introduction by Yves Smith, the recipient of the Seventh Annual Pushitzer Prize In Commentary For 2022 (May 9, 2022), in “www.NakedCapitalism.com” dated March 16, 2023.]

[See the e-commentary at Too Much Dirt; Too Few Rugs. Repurchase Agreements (September 23, 2019) noting the problems in the Repurchase Market in 2019 that still haunt the economy and the choice between an economic or a kinetic declaration of war discussed in Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019) and the observations at Economics And Finance:  Girls v. Boys (June 4, 2018).]

Bumper sticker of the week:

Derivatives are “financial weapons of mass destruction.”  Warren Buffett