Archive for the Trade Category

So It Was The Red Sea And Credit Suisse.  Who’s Counting?  (Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019)) (February 12, 2024)

Posted in Banks and Banking System, Derivatives, Trade on February 12, 2024 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “The Red Sea rather than the Strait of Hormuz.  Big difference.  Who’s counting.”

J          “A Swiss bank rather than a German bank.  Big difference.  Who’s counting.”

. . .

J          “You were right.  Different bottleneck; same strategy.  A motley group of characters are putting a few dents in a few ships and fundamentally transforming international shipping and commercial transactions.” 

K          “You were right.  The Swiss banking regulators forced UBS to acquire Credit Suisse by taking money away from the bondholders and giving it to the stockholders.  That breaches one of the Fundamental Rules of Business and Commerce.  They cannot even strong arm a shotgun wedding legally.”

. . .

J          “And on this continent, the banking system collapsed last year but was artificially and illegally propped up by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, at least for a while.”

K          “Seems that everything involving banking is always done illegally.  When the Swiss and the Germans . . . and the Americans . . . are unable to run banks profitable, we are all in trouble.”

. . .

K          “When does the derivatives market explode?”

J          “You can say that again.  When does the derivatives market explode?”

. . .

[See the e-commentary at Strait of Hormuz or Deutsche Bank?  Deriving Derivatives (July 8, 2019), Special Edition.  Deciphering Derivatives.  Oh, And Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! (March 17, 2023), Too Much Dirt; Too Few Rugs. Repurchase Agreements (September 23, 2019) and The Economic Equinox:  Half Light; Half Dark? (September 25, 2023).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Coming to a planet near you

There are two kinds of vessels in the Navy:  submarines and targets.

You have to be accurate every time.  Your adversary only has to be accurate once.

China Invaded . . . And Won!  Oh Well. (January 29, 2024)

Posted in China, Economy, Kleptocracy, Trade on January 29, 2024 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “How does one explain why there is such a fuss over China possibly invading Taiwan when there was so little effusion over China invading the USA.”

J          “And winning.”

. . .

K          “For most of our adult life, the American economy has been and is being destroyed, disemboweled and dismembered.  A crook like Harry Stonecipher destroyed, disemboweled and dismembered a brilliant American jewel – Boeing.  A thug like Jack Welch destroyed, disemboweled and dismembered a shining American icon – General Electric.  Destruction from within a company.  And economic criminals like ‘Mitts’ Romney and Peter Singer and so many others destroyed companies from without.”

J          “In the patois of our age, would ‘Domestic Economic Terrorist’ appropriately describe them?”

K          “And then they get appointed to a presidential cabinet position or even run for or get into the White House.”

 . . .

K          “Those in power are only concerned with Washington and Wall Street not with Waukesha and Wabash.”

J          “Our friend the ‘War and Wall Street Party’ grinds on and over and around and through us.”

. . .

K          “Look at how it was accomplished.  With the active cooperation and complicity of the Ruling Class of the United States, China invaded the Greater Midwest writ large of America. . . and took over.  The invasion was undertaken not with people and bullets but instead with United States politicians/businessmen and plant closings.  The good people in the Greater Midwest writ large know that they have been conquered and vanquished.  China also stormed the beaches and invaded the two Golden Coasts . . . and took over.  However, the fools on the two Golden Coasts do not know that they too have been conquered and vanquished.”

. . .

J          “Someone was sounding that message more than five years ago.  The Mandarin language class on Tuesday nights prepares one to interpret the conversations of the prison guards at the re-education camp.  And some of us will be quickly identified and shipped to the re-education camp.  Or shot on sight.” 

. . .    

[See the e-commentary at Mitt’s “Destructive Destruction”: The Bane of Capitalism (July 9, 2012) and Volkswagen (VW).  The Bottom Half Of The German Engineering Class Must Go Somewhere.  Boeing? (July 1, 2019).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

We could be getting into trouble

Three “D” USA Economic Policy:  Destroy, Disembowel and Dismember

Tariffs, Taxes, Trade, Trends (August 26, 2019)

Posted in Markets, Tariffs, Taxation, Trade on August 26, 2019 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “They’re back.”

J          “Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the economy.  The tariff jaws are opening back up and may devour us.”

. . .

J          “A tariff is a tax.  A tax raises revenue and raises the price of the tariffed/taxed product and shapes the behavior of the product’s consumers.”

K          “Our good friend price elasticity.  The demand for the tariffed/taxed product changes and in most situations goes down but in unpredictable ways and at a unpredictable rate in different economies and markets and regions and sectors.”

J          “The economists do not know what is going on in the economy as it is and definitely do not know what is going on when the tariff curve ball is pitched into the mess and the morass.”

. . .

K          “The goal is to encourage domestic production, but domestic production is dead.  No businessperson is willing or able or capable of responding to the possibility that there may be some ephemeral interest in a product in America based on a whim in policy this week.”

J          “Why make the effort.  Uncertainty is the greatest foe.  No one is going to open a manufacturing plant in America except perhaps one run by robots that are cheaper than foreign labor.”

. . .

J          “A tariff is a thinly disguised act of war.”

K          “This economy is so fractured and fissured and fraudulent that the next jolt could be the Big Jolt.”       

. . .

[See the e-commentary at “Terrorized By Trumpi’s Tariffs (March 5, 2018)”, “Tariffs Are Tarrible.  Oh, And Happy Bastille Day! (July 16, 2018)” and “‘Mericanize:  Monetize, Mechanize And Militarize (December 30, 2013)”.

Bumper sticker of the week:

“Powerful nations can maintain themselves only by crime, little states are virtuous only by weakness.”  Mikhail Bakunin

USA + FRN/PD – – > IMF + SDR – – > NDB + UMU? The “Universal Monetary Unit” . . . Coming To a Planet Near You (January 2, 2017)

Posted in AIIB, Banks and Banking System, Book Reference, BRICS, CFETS, CIPS, Dollar - World's Reserve Currency, Gold, Gold Standard, Hyperdive Economic Collapse, International Finance, International Monetary Fund, Money, Petrodollar, SDR - Special Drawing Rights, Special Drawing Rights (SDR), Trade, Universal Monetary Unit, World's Reserve Currency on January 2, 2017 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “Remember way back on October 1 when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) implemented the modified composition of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) that includes for the first time the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) along with the United States Dollar (FRN/PD), the Euro (€), the British Pound Sterling (£) and the Japanese Yen (¥) in the Great Valuation Basket?”

J          “Couldn’t forget.  To celebrate the transition, we got the entire day off.”

K          “The Federal Reserve Note/PetroDollar maintained its percentage share of the portfolio with the Euro, Pound and Yen yielding room for the new kid on the block.  The way I see it, the evolution of the SDR may be too slow for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the BRICS countries) and other countries (the BRICS+ countries) and still leaves the FRN/PD as the world’s reserve currency.”

J          “They say more countries are getting cranky that the FRN/PD remains the mandatory currency peg for trade on the global market.  Last Thursday, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), the foreign exchange trading platform operator, announced that it is adjusting the way it calculates the CFETS Yuan Index which is a critical measure of the Yuan against a basket of currencies, starting yesterday.”

K          “And you got the entire day off.” 

J          “And today, for good measure.  They say that the USA will not allow the IMF to revisit the composition of the SDRs again for years.  The problem for the BRICS+ countries is that the United States has veto power over the composition of the SDR and will block any attempt to accelerate the transition to incorporate other currencies.”

K          “Think about this possible scenario.  The BRICS+ countries may make an end run and expand the mandate and activities of what is now known as the New Development Bank (NDB) and create a Universal Monetary Unit (UMU) constituted of the Chinese RMB, Russian Ruble, Indian Rupee, South African Rand, Brazilian Real, good old gold (Alpha uniform) and a smorgasbord of other currencies.”     

J          “While they are at it, the South African Kruggerand could supplant the Rand and serve as the gold component or part of the gold component.”

K          “Who knows, when they do that, you may get the week off of work.”

J          “Count me in and count me off.  And to provide for a smoother transition, include in the new generation UMU the current currencies in the SDR in diluted amounts.  A measured and gradual approach is prudent.  Interdependent economies and unintended consequences, you know.”

K          “While they are at it, they could go full in.  The Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payment System sometimes known as the China Interbank Payment System (CIPS) could develop into a comparable transnational multilateral payment system as a complement to and to compete with the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT).”

J          “That’s exactly what I was going to suggest.  An economy needs a ‘thing’ to serve as money/currency/chits/script/wampum and a means to reconcile payments.  The BRICS+ countries have no reason to wait another half decade when they can do it themselves.”

. . .

J          “Or the BRICS+ countries may force the issue at the IMF meeting in Rome, District of Columbia on April 21 – 23.”

K          “And you will get at least two days off of work.”

J          “Can’t forget.  Stay tuned.”

. . .

K          “Someone surely has thought and wondered about these possible developments.”

J          “You think?  I wonder if anyone cares.  What’s on tv?”

. . .

[See the e-commentary at “The Mandibles, FRNs, SDRs, IMF, G20, WTD! (September 5, 2016)” and “Dollar – World’s Reserve Currency”.]

Bumper stickers of the week:

The “Universal Monetary Unit” . . . Coming To a Planet Near You

Paper [Money] Is Patriotic

Fight the War on Cash

 

Trans-Pacific Partnership / United Nations Convention On The Law Of The Sea (May 25, 2015)

Posted in Clinton, Foreign Policy, International Finance, Kleptocracy, O'Bama, Politics, Presidency, Trade on May 25, 2015 by e-commentary.org

. . .

5          “The United Nations Convention On The Law Of The Sea (UNCLOS) cedes minimal U.S. authority to international institutions; the Republicans vehemently oppose the treaty.  The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) concedes substantial U.S. sovereignty to international corporations; the Republicans ecstatically support the treaty.”

6          “Go figure.  If O’Bama supports something, the Republicans hate it.  If O’Bama opposes something, the Republicans love it.  O’Bama supports the TPP, the Republicans love it.  What is up?”

5          “What is up?  O’Bama is not allowing anyone other than a few Senators to review the language of the legislation.  That is surreal.”

6          “And perverse and undemocratic.  If the Republicans had pulled that stunt, they would have gotten hammered.”

5          “At the end of his administration, Clinton capitulated to the Republicans and signed the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) and the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (GLBA), the legislation that repealed part of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 and has led to reckless financial speculation.  The damage done by DOMA has been undone, but the damage done by GLBA will undo America.”

6          “O’Bama may be the first President in American history to switch political parties while in office.”

5          “Other than Clinton.  They will still hate O’Bama because he remains Black.”

6          “Historians so inclined will be able to uncover the critique of a few prophets with honor who chronicled the dismantling of America in real time.”

. . .

Bumper stickers of the week:

“A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself within.  The essential causes of Rome’s decline lay in her people, her morals, her class struggle, her failing trade, her bureaucratic despotism, her stifling taxes, her consuming wars.” Will Durant

George Carlin was right