The Great Checkmate And The Great Seesaw: Interesting Rates (April 11, 2022)

. . .

K          “I doubt the Fed will be able to increase 150 basis points [1.5%] this year before the economic pain is so great that they will be forced to flood the market with free money for the wealthy and exacerbate the obscene wealth divide.”

J          “200 total basis points [2%].  I’ll go big.  I cannot see them raising rates to a total of 250 or even 225 basis points.  If they also start the ‘quantitative tightening’ at the same time, they will suffocate the markets.”

. . .

J          “Some say we will get ‘deflation’ and others say we will get ‘inflation’ without being specific.  We talked years ago about the deflation of bubble assets and the inflation of necessities that continues to get more distended and pronounced every day.”

K          “As I recall, last April we recognized that inflation was permanent and was not transitory.  The Fed did not shed the word ‘transitory’ until December.”

. . .

K          “The self-inflicted Great Checkmate is inescapable.  They say the bond market is about twice the value of the stock market.  They say the equity market is about fifty trillion dollars.  They say the gross domestic product of the United States is about twenty trillion dollars.  If the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate to provide a reasonable return to bond holders and to attempt to throttle inflation, then the stock market will fall, the housing market will fold its tent, and the federal government will strain to pay the interest on the national debt.”

J          “The Great Checkmate is the Great Seesaw.  The economy is allowed to teeter and then the economy is allowed to totter.  The next year will be quite a roller coaster ride.  Let’s compare notes at the end of the year.”

. . .

[See the “The Coming Global Financial Revolution: Russia Is Following the American Playbook” in “The Web of Debt” dated April 5, 2022 by Ellen Brown, the recipient of the Third Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 8, 2018); consider the discussion of some of the possible changes and consequences of World War E in “The commodity currency revolution” in “Goldmoney” dated April 7, 2022 by Alasdair Macleod.]

[See the e-commentary at Careening Toward A Global Totalitarian Authoritarian Behemoth?  And Then There Is The Fed’s Self-Inflicted Great Checkmate. (January 3, 2022), Third Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 8, 2018), Economics And Finance:  Girls v. Boys (June 4, 2018) and Gas / Au / Ag / Cu: The Great Commodity / Currency Wars: What’s Up? What’s Down? What’s Really Up? What’s Going Down? (November 17, 2014).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Dragon < Eagle > Bruin; Dragon + Bruin > Eagle; Eagle + Bruin > Dragon

Free Assange Journalism is not a crime

“The geopolitical war also distracts attention from the urgent agenda of climate change, especially in light of recent indicators of global warming causing climate experts to be further alarmed.  Other matter of global concern including migration, biodiversity, poverty and apartheid are being again relegated to the back burners of global policy challenge, while the sociopathic game of Armageddon Roulette is being played without taking species wellbeing and survival into account, continuing the lethal recklessness that began the day the bomb was dropped on Hiroshima more than 75 years ago.

In concluding, the question ‘why Ukraine?’ calls for answers.  The standard answer of reverse racism, moral hypocrisy, and Western narrative control is not wrong but significantly incomplete if it does not include the geopolitical war that, while not now directly responsible for Ukrainian suffering, is from other perspectives more dangerous and destructive than that awful traditional war.  This geopolitical war of ‘poor’ choice is now being waged mainly by means of hostile propaganda, but also weapons and supplies while not killing directly outside of Ukraine.

This second war, so rarely identified much less assessed, is irresponsibly menacing the wellbeing of tens of millions of civilians around the world while arms dealers, post-conflict construction companies, and civilian and uniformed militarists exult.  To be provocative, I would say that it is time for the peace movement to make sure that the US loses this geopolitical war!  To win it, even persisting with it, would constitute a grave ‘geopolitical crime.’”  Richard Falk

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