Archive for the Inflation Category

The Great Checkmate And The Great Seesaw: Interesting Rates (April 11, 2022)

Posted in Federal Reserve, Great Checkmate, Inflation, Interest Rates, Recession, Stagflation on April 11, 2022 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “I doubt the Fed will be able to increase 150 basis points [1.5%] this year before the economic pain is so great that they will be forced to flood the market with free money for the wealthy and exacerbate the obscene wealth divide.”

J          “200 total basis points [2%].  I’ll go big.  I cannot see them raising rates to a total of 250 or even 225 basis points.  If they also start the ‘quantitative tightening’ at the same time, they will suffocate the markets.”

. . .

J          “Some say we will get ‘deflation’ and others say we will get ‘inflation’ without being specific.  We talked years ago about the deflation of bubble assets and the inflation of necessities that continues to get more distended and pronounced every day.”

K          “As I recall, last April we recognized that inflation was permanent and was not transitory.  The Fed did not shed the word ‘transitory’ until December.”

. . .

K          “The self-inflicted Great Checkmate is inescapable.  They say the bond market is about twice the value of the stock market.  They say the equity market is about fifty trillion dollars.  They say the gross domestic product of the United States is about twenty trillion dollars.  If the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate to provide a reasonable return to bond holders and to attempt to throttle inflation, then the stock market will fall, the housing market will fold its tent, and the federal government will strain to pay the interest on the national debt.”

J          “The Great Checkmate is the Great Seesaw.  The economy is allowed to teeter and then the economy is allowed to totter.  The next year will be quite a roller coaster ride.  Let’s compare notes at the end of the year.”

. . .

[See the “The Coming Global Financial Revolution: Russia Is Following the American Playbook” in “The Web of Debt” dated April 5, 2022 by Ellen Brown, the recipient of the Third Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 8, 2018); consider the discussion of some of the possible changes and consequences of World War E in “The commodity currency revolution” in “Goldmoney” dated April 7, 2022 by Alasdair Macleod.]

[See the e-commentary at Careening Toward A Global Totalitarian Authoritarian Behemoth?  And Then There Is The Fed’s Self-Inflicted Great Checkmate. (January 3, 2022), Third Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 8, 2018), Economics And Finance:  Girls v. Boys (June 4, 2018) and Gas / Au / Ag / Cu: The Great Commodity / Currency Wars: What’s Up? What’s Down? What’s Really Up? What’s Going Down? (November 17, 2014).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Dragon < Eagle > Bruin; Dragon + Bruin > Eagle; Eagle + Bruin > Dragon

Free Assange Journalism is not a crime

“The geopolitical war also distracts attention from the urgent agenda of climate change, especially in light of recent indicators of global warming causing climate experts to be further alarmed.  Other matter of global concern including migration, biodiversity, poverty and apartheid are being again relegated to the back burners of global policy challenge, while the sociopathic game of Armageddon Roulette is being played without taking species wellbeing and survival into account, continuing the lethal recklessness that began the day the bomb was dropped on Hiroshima more than 75 years ago.

In concluding, the question ‘why Ukraine?’ calls for answers.  The standard answer of reverse racism, moral hypocrisy, and Western narrative control is not wrong but significantly incomplete if it does not include the geopolitical war that, while not now directly responsible for Ukrainian suffering, is from other perspectives more dangerous and destructive than that awful traditional war.  This geopolitical war of ‘poor’ choice is now being waged mainly by means of hostile propaganda, but also weapons and supplies while not killing directly outside of Ukraine.

This second war, so rarely identified much less assessed, is irresponsibly menacing the wellbeing of tens of millions of civilians around the world while arms dealers, post-conflict construction companies, and civilian and uniformed militarists exult.  To be provocative, I would say that it is time for the peace movement to make sure that the US loses this geopolitical war!  To win it, even persisting with it, would constitute a grave ‘geopolitical crime.’”  Richard Falk

Interning For Clio:  Collecting, Protecting And Preserving The Record (April 4, 2022)

Posted in Bideni, Covid / Coronavirus, Inflation, Newspapers, PMC, Press/Media, Ukraine on April 4, 2022 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “They say most prestigious internships today are unpaid and thus only available to the children of the well-to-do who do not need the money and are well on the path to doing the parvenu PMC thing.”

J          “I cannot really say this undertaking has made either of us well-known or wealthy.”

. . .

K          “I print an article, then scan the paper version and then save it along with a cut and pasted version of the URL in a separate file.  What I find too often in a later search is that the article is simply deleted, not edited or distorted.  Every now and every then, an article is materially modified.  Adding ‘not’ at spots and deleting ‘not’ at other spots changes an article.”

J          “And then you get ‘404ed’ so often.  As I recall in computer network communications, the ‘HTTP 404’, ‘404 not found’, ‘404’, ‘404 error’, ‘page not found’ or ‘file not found’ are error messages.  They are a hypertext transfer protocol standard response code – the good old http.  The message indicates that the browser was able to communicate with a given server, but the server could not find what was requested.  It is a good old server failure.  Servers are failing far too often.  By design.  Servers are the new age HAL 9000 with far more sophisticated AI.”

. . .

K          “From the first entry on January 30, 2020, the ‘Coronavirus Diary’ reveals quite an unreal and surreal ride.  I structured my day to run by and do field research at Costco, Target, Walmart and other stores and venues to study the people, products, prices, perils and performance.  In early February of 2020, I was one of the few Occidentals wearing a mask and knowingly nodded my head at the few Orientals also wearing masks.  I bought up a box of pulse oximeters and gave them to folks who had no idea what they are.”

J          “The thing with toilet paper and bottled water is unreal and surreal.  Humanity is not going to make it.  We are not going to make it.”

. . .

K          “A six pack of Costco canned chicken breasts went from $10.89 to $13.99 last Tuesday and then to $15.99 in the last few days.  The sign said $16.99, yet when I went back to double check the receipt, I discovered they charged $15.99.”

J          “They are ready with a sign of our times.  Costco Kirkland precooked bacon went from $10.99 about a year ago to $12.99 then to $14.99 then quite surprisingly to $12.99 and then in the last few days to $16.99.”

. . .

K          “I followed the ‘print, scan and save’ practice and actually saved what was actually said or written about Covid-19 on a daily basis to have an immutable record.  Some of the pieces are now ‘404er’ likely because the author is inconvenienced or embarrassed by the statements.”

. . .

K          “The NYT is the ‘paper of record’ for the Narrative but not the ‘paper of record’ for the truth.  Society needs another credible source to chronicle daily developments for current and future consumption and consideration.”

. . .

[See “Ukraine’s Propaganda War: International PR Firms, DC Lobbyists and CIA Cutouts” in “MintPress News” dated March 22, 2022 by Dan Cohen and “Psaki Reminds Reporters That Biden Doesn’t Speak For The President Of The United States” in “The Babylon Bee” dated March 29, 2022.] 

[See the e-commentary at “Analog Knowledge Devices” (“AKD”):  The Next “Currency” (July 10, 2017), Buy A Book? I’ll Pass. Read A Book? I’ll Play. Oh, And Happy National Book Month! (September 30, 2019), Covid-19 PanICdemic/Plague:  Basically, Back To Basics:  Finding Food; Printing Rutabagas.  Happy Earth Day! (April 20, 2020) and “Just visiting, thank you.” (April 1, 2019).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

“The following content has been identified by the YouTube community as inappropriate or offensive to some audiences.  Viewer discretion is advised.”  [Blocking a conversation challenging America’s never ending wars around the globe.]

I got 404ed

Dragon < Eagle > Bruin; Dragon + Bruin > Eagle; Eagle + Bruin > Dragon

Sanctions, Supply Chains And World War E (March 7, 2022)

Posted in Covid / Coronavirus, Inflation, Kleptocracy, Markets, Russia, Sanctions on March 7, 2022 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “Seems like ten years ago, not two years ago.”

J          “It was ten years ago.  Covid time.”

K          “In mid-February way back then, we were terrified that it was as virulent as a Hantavirus and more terrified that the rest of the public was oblivious to the threat.  The threats to the supply chains were obvious to only a few.”

. . .

K          “Two years ago they said that we needed two weeks to ‘flatten the curve’ but never said that they would take two years to ‘flatten the economy’ and transfer wealth to the wealthy and undermine small and independently owned businesses.”

J          “They launched ‘helicopter money’ that dropped a dollar to the plebs for every hundred thousand dollars delivered to the Kleptocrats.  What an experiment.  We as a society tried wage and price controls in 1971 and helicopter money in 2021-2022.  Inflation is no surprise; inflation is the consequence.” 

. . .

K          “Biden and Putin agree.  Biden plans to boycott Russian oil and gas that is desperately needed in Germany and the West; Russia agrees not to provide the much needed oil and gas to Germany and the West.  As dad would say, Biden is cutting off Europe’s nose to spite Europe’s face and Putin is providing the scalpel.”

J          “Oil is life.  Turning off and turning down the oil wells will not turn out well.”

. . .

K          “Biden’s decision to cut off the Russian central bank’s access to most of its $630 billion of foreign reserves is a desperate and frightening move.  Once again, the United States weaponized the monetary system and issued a formal declaration of ‘World War E’ against Russia.  The rest of the world knows one truth – No one can trust the United States.  There is nothing more important or precious than trust.  Mark my words, there will be a new economic order that is fundamentally different than the current machinations.”

J          “I tell you, for those of us on the outside, the early tell is when the manipulated paper gold price results in few sellers of gold and then a huge chasm between the manipulated price and the actual selling price between a willing seller and a willing buyer.”  

. . .

J          “Someone said that Russia holds 90% of the world’s neon that is critical for lasers and semiconductor manufacturing, 40% of palladium that is necessary for catalytic converters and 35% to 40% of Boeing’s titanium and over 50% of Airbus’s titanium.  And then there is platinum and there is aluminum and there is rhodium.”

K          “From what I read, Europe imports 28% of their oil and 40% of their natural gas from Russia.  The U.S. is not happy with that reality yet cannot meet the demand.  So the U.S. tells the Europeans to freeze.  In the dark.  That will play well in Potsdam.”

. . .

K          “The move from the factory to the farm is as disquieting.  In high school, they described the Ukraine as the breadbasket of what was then the USSR.” 

J          “We always flow back to oil.  Oil is life; food is just oil reconstituted in another form.  Someone observed that Russia and Ukraine account for 30% of the global wheat trade, 20% of the corn, 80% of the sunflower-oil exports and 12% of all calories traded globally.  And they provide fertilizer to grow the products.  Without fertilizer, farmers will not plant.  The inescapable problem is that a car plant can be closed or opened at any time of the year, but a carrot must be planted at a specific time of the year governed by Gaia not by the government.  The times to plant have passed and are passing.  You cannot plant yesterday.”

. . .

K          “You reap what you sow.  We are not sowing.”

J          “We are so in trouble.”

. . .

[See If Russian Currency Reserves Aren’t Really Money, the World Is in for a Shock dated March 3, 2022 by Jon Sindreu in the “Wall Street Journal”.]

[See the e-commentary at Covid-19: BAU v. BAU (February 24, 2020), Covid-19 PanICdemic/Plague:  Basically, Back To Basics:  Finding Food; Printing Rutabagas.  Happy Earth Day! (April 20, 2020), Is Inflation Inflating!?!? (April 26, 2021) and Careening Toward A Global Totalitarian Authoritarian Behemoth?  And Then There Is The Fed’s Self-Inflicted Great Checkmate. (January 3, 2022).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

“Control oil and you control nations; control food and you control the people.”  Henry Kissinger

Two is one; one is none; none is none.

Socio-politico-economic experiments:  1971:  Wage and Price Controls; 2020 – 21:  Helicopter Money

“Whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap.”  Galatians 6:7

Ailing, Failing, Wailing And Bailing (September 27, 2021)

Posted in Bail In, Bailout/Bribe, Cryptocurrency, Federal Reserve, Inflation on September 27, 2021 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “The financial and economic system is insolvent not just illiquid.  That will not endure.”

J          “They can and will continue to print their way down Primrose Lane and kick the debt can down the highway.  If any entity is ailing or failing, it can always start wailing and the Federal Reserve will start bailing.”

. . .

J          “We will know that Bitcoin has arrived when the government bails out the holders of Bitcoin.”

. . .    

K          “These things happen in October.”

J          “Not going to happen.  Perhaps next October.”

K          “You’re probably right.  Let’s compare notes.  On Halloween.  This year.”

. .  .

[See the e-commentary at “Is Inflation Inflating!?!? (April 26, 2021)”, “Covid-19 PanICdemic/Plague:  Basically, Back To Basics:  Finding Food; Printing Rutabagas.  Happy Earth Day! (April 20, 2020)”, “Covid-19: BAU v. BAU (February 24, 2020)”, “Twenty Sixteen (January 4, 2016)” and “They Can Print Money (November 2, 2015)”.]

Bumper sticker of the week:

A system that cannot go on forever will not go on forever

Is Inflation Inflating!?!? (April 26, 2021)

Posted in Deflation, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates on April 26, 2021 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “‘Shadowstats’ by John Williams.”

J          “‘Chapwood Index’ by Ed Butowsky.”

. . .

K          “$8.99 two years ago, $13.99 one year ago and $22.77 one week ago.  If it is available.”

J          “$577 two years ago, $777 one year ago and $929 one week ago.  If it is available.”

. . .

K          “The inflation in what is generically referred to as ‘higher education’ must be analyzed over ten years.  Tuition is tied to increases in schooling loans. The federal government makes more money available at steep interest rates which triggers the universities to raise tuition and hire more superfluous administrators.”

J          “Housing prices are through the roof and only getting worse with the price of lumber and consumer durables rising.”

. . .    

K          “What happens when inflation undermines the real rates of return in the bond market and forces the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates?”

J          “Raising the interest rate increases the cost of paying off the national Debt.  Thus, the Fed must raise interest rates and must not raise interest rates.”

. . . 

[See the e-commentary on stealth inflation at “Back Door Inflation (July 16, 2007)”, the dubious numbers advanced by the government at “The Economic Numbers Game (May 5, 2008)”, the underpayment of public benefits based on false and distorted information at “Social (In)Security And The C.P.I. (May 29, 2017)”, the consequences of thwarted supply lines at Covid-19: BAU v. BAU (February 24, 2020) and a treatise on housing at “Housing:  Another Bubble Blown By Criminally Low Interest Rates (August 24, 2020)”.]

Bumper sticker of the week:

Whip Inflation When?  How?

Stagflation?!?  Hands Down Or Hands Up? (January 14, 2019)

Posted in Deflation, Economics, Inflation, Price, Stagflation, Stock Market on January 14, 2019 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “The way I see the economy unfolding and unfurling in the near future, everything in or on your hands right now (stocks, bonds, lands, rides, gloves, etc.) will drop precipitously in price and everything you need to get your hands on to live (grub, aqua, tent, bike, threads, etc.) will rise staggeringly in price . . . and in value.”

J          “The old ‘lose-lose’ situation.  So many people are living a hand-to-mouth existence without much in or at or on hand to use or to lose and not much in their pockets to hand over for daily necessities.”

K          “One’s assets will halve, one’s expenses will at least double.”

. . . 

K          “For those who rode the rise, the taxes that were assessed on the assets as they rose in price will not be rebated when the assets retreat in price.”

J          “And as the assets rose in price but not in real economic value, the ‘wealth effect’ induced and seduced the owners of the assets to spend more and to incur more debt because they thought they were effectively wealthier.  Those spent monies are gone and those debts are still here and naggingly awaiting discharge.”

. . .

[See the e-commentary at “The Fed: Deal with ‘Stag’; Deal with ‘Flation’? August 7, 2006)”, “Stagflation And The Fed (September 17, 2007)”and “Going Forward With The ‘Reverse Stock Split’ (February 5, 2018)” proposing to double or even triple or even quadruple the Dow overnight just for fun.]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Hard come, easy go

stocks/2 + bonds/2 + lands/2 + rides/2 + gloves/2 + etc./2 = Net Worth;  

grub x 2 + aqua x 2 + tent x 2 + bike x 2 + threads x 2 + etc. x 2 = Recurring Expenses

Social (In)Security And The C.P.I. (May 29, 2017)

Posted in Economics, Inflation, Social Security on May 29, 2017 by e-commentary.org

. . .

How Much Social Security Will I Get?

  • Your new 2015 monthly benefit

Amount before deduction is:                                                          $1,374.90

  • Your 2015 monthly deduction for the

Medicare Part B Premium is:                                                            $146.90

$104.90 for the standard Medicare premium, plus

$42.00 for the income-related monthly adjustment amount based on your 2013 income tax return

  • Your benefit amount after deductions that will be deposited into your bank account or sent in your check on January 2, 2015 is:                                                                      $1,228.00

How Much Social Security Will I Get?

  • Your new 2016 monthly benefit

Amount before deduction is:                                                          $1,374.60

  • Your 2016 monthly deduction for the

Medicare Part B Premium is:                                                            $243.60

$121.80 for the standard Medicare premium, plus

$121.80 for the income-related monthly adjustment amount based on your 2014 income tax return

  • Your benefit amount after deductions that will be deposited into your bank account or sent in your check on December 31, 2015 is:                                                             $1,131.00

How Much Social Security Will I Get?

  • Your new 2017 monthly benefit

Amount before deduction is:                                                          $1,378.90

  • Your 2017 monthly deduction for the

Medicare Part B Premium is:                                                            $267.90

$134.00 for the standard Medicare premium, plus

$133.90 for the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) based on your 2015 income tax return

  • Your benefit amount after deductions that will be deposited into your bank account or sent in your check on January 3, 2017 is:                                                              $1,111.00

 How Much Social Security Will I Get?

 Your new 2018 monthly benefit

Amount before deduction is:                                                          $?,???.??

  • Your 2018 monthly deduction for the

Medicare Part B Premium is:                                                            $???.??

$???.?? for the standard Medicare premium, plus

$???.?? for the income-related monthly adjustment amount (IRMAA) based on your 2017 income tax return

  • Your benefit amount after deductions that will be deposited into your bank account or sent in your check on January 3, 2018 is:                                                                  $?,???.00

. . .

[John Fitzgerald Kennedy – May 29, 1917.]

[See “Shadow Stats” www.shadowstats.com collected by John Williams and navigate the site.]

[See the e-commentary at “Back Door Inflation (July 16, 2007)” and “The Economic Numbers Game (May 5, 2008).”]

Bumper stickers of the week:

What did we fight for, again?

How Much Social Security Will I Get?

Will I Get Much Social Security?

Will I Get Social Security?

Will I Get Security?

Will I Get Security Socially?

“The cost of living has gone up another dollar a quart.”  W.C. Fields

They allege that the cost of living for the consumer has not gone up, but I never got the memo.

Quantitative Easing = Money Printing (January 19, 2015)

Posted in Deflation, Economics, Federal Reserve, Inflation, INFORM Act, Money, Quantitative Easing on January 19, 2015 by e-commentary.org

. . .

A          “‘Quantitative Easing’ sounds so academic and antiseptic and . . . surely sound.”

B          “And nebulous enough to fool a frightened public that does sense that something is wrong.”

A          “When you cannot do anything positive and you feel a compulsion to do something, should you do something negative?”

B          “It is doing something.”

. . .

A          “The Federal Reserve has been ‘printing’ more money and passing it to the wealthy for a half-dozen years.  The money is not making a demand on resources right now, so there is no systemic inflation yet other than rises in the prices of basic necessities.  The general public does not have enough money to make substantial demands on resources, so some prices are even heading down.  The Federal Reserve ‘electrons’ are driving up the stock market and leading some to conclude that all is good in the land.  When the money meanders into the economy and begins to make demands on resources that also may be in short supply, prices will go up.”

B          “Limited deflation then inflation if not hyperinflation.  Coming to a nation near you.”

. . .

A          “When someone discovers that printing money is the problem, how will the Federal Reserve react?”

B          “‘Print’ more money.”

. . .

[See the “Intergenerational Financial Obligations Reform Act” (INFORM Act) discussed at http://www.theinpformact.org/.]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Quantitative Easing:  Coming (Back) To A Nation Near You

Quantitative Easing 4 = Money Printing (4th Edition) ?

Print, baby, print

The Dow At 14 K. Again. (February 4, 2013)

Posted in Banks and Banking System, Economics, Federal Reserve, Housing, Inflation, Stock Market on February 4, 2013 by e-commentary.org

. . .

C          “Back above 14,000 again.”

D          “Happy daze are here again.  I guess.  14,000 is better than 7,000, but how much better and for how long and for whom and for what reasons are anyone’s guess.”

C          “Beaucoup dollar electrons are given to those who already have beaucoup dollar electrons.  There are no other places to plug in the dollar electrons, so the stock markets are the default investment.”

D          “And money market funds and certificates of deposit are paying .0000001 percent which is crippling current retirees.”

C          “And those who know that the stock market is rigged and instead seek a safe refuge have no remunerative alternative.”

. . .

C          “Real estate continues to fool everyone.  The value of commercial properties is likely to slide as brick and mortar businesses board up their doors and windows.”

D          “The banks cannot mark to the actual market value their vast portfolios of repossessed and returned houses and underperforming loans.  Their collective insolvency would be manifest.  A collective lie undergirds the system.”

C          “Housing starts may be up but only at the upper end of the housing market.”

D          “With these low interest rates, a 30 year note is very appealing and may be prudent and prescient for the right person.  The homeowners who can manage to hold jobs and fund and feed a mortgage with a low interest rate may find that they have a bird’s nest on the ground.”

C          “When inflation takes off.”

D          “Yup.”

. . .

C          “One arm of the government – the Federal Reserve – is funding and fueling the other arms of the government with bogus electronic chits.”

D          “The way I see it, one arm of the bankers – the Federal Reserve – is funding and fueling the bankers and fooling and defrauding the body politic.”

C          “Anything that cannot go on forever.”

. . .

[See the “e-ssays” titled The Dow Jones (the Murdoch ?) Hits 14 K In A Hollow Economy (July 23, 2007) and “Fiat Stock”: Taking Stock Of The Stock Market (May 16, 2011).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Shouldn’t it be Obsessive-Compulsive Order?

Anything that cannot go on forever will not go on forever.

Interesting Thing About Interest Rates (November 29, 2010)

Posted in Banks and Banking System, Economics, Federal Reserve, Inflation on November 29, 2010 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K         “It really is hard to get rich when they are paying .000000001 percent per annum interest.”

J          “Unless it is compounded every second.”

K         “We are told that we should save, yet there is no economic incentive.  There is no interest when there is no interest.  Senior citizens who counted on a five to ten percent interest rate for their money to fund their retirements are being flat lined by the flat line interest rates.”

J          “Some of the negative economic impact of the contemporary economic excess is being inflicted on the current generation.  Doesn’t seem unfair.  Although there is more saving, only a thin sliver of the populace is saving because there is no other safe haven for the money.  The money is just parked.  Another problem may be brewing.  The banks are given free money by the federal government and are loaning it at positive but low rates to a few apparently credit-worthy borrowers.  What will happen in three years when interest rates are forced to go up and the rate of return on the current mortgages and deeds of trust is less sexy?  Will the banks try to call the loans early?  I assume the banks will enforce provisions precluding assignment of the obligations to get them off the books as quickly as possible.”

K         “They will find a way.  Some astute homeowners will secure a low interest rate mortgage and use the funds to invest in savings accounts that should start paying substantial interest rates.  That stratagem may be the only way to ride rising interest rates in the safest investments in a broken economy.  With so much money in the system and an unresponsive economy, we will see inflation.  Recent purchases of Treasury securities suggest that the smart money anticipates inflation.  When bread rises to $100.00 a loaf, the attendant changes in the economy will lead to interest on your bread rising from the current 00.001%.”

J          “Inflation will make all the current debt much less of an expense in real economic terms.  Inflation will expunge debt.”

K         “Anyone who saves is spent.”

. . .

Bumper stickers of the week:

Paying the highest rate allowed by law (but nothing is allowed?)

Anyone who saves is spent