Archive for the Economics Category

Is The Gold Standard Really The Gold Standard? (January 18, 2010)

Posted in "Fiat ______", Economics, Gold Standard on January 18, 2010 by e-commentary.org

. . .

G          “We need to go back to the gold standard.”

M          “Why?”

G          “To stop the government from printing fiat money.”

M          “Why gold?  Why not some other metal or something else that also has some more practical use?”

G          “The government can’t print gold.”

M          “You can’t eat gold.  It does not keep you warm. Gold has been alluring through the ages and does have some practical uses, yet it is only as valuable as it is because we ascribe value to it.  Fiat gold is not much different than fiat money or fiat currency.”

G          “We can’t trust the government.  If the government cannot issue fiat money unless it has an equal amount of gold reserves, we would not have economic problems.”

M          “The gold supply is not connected in any way with or to the desirable money supply or level of economic activity.  What if the government tried to tie the amount of fiat money to the total quantity of goods produced and to be produced and services performed and to be performed?  The ‘goods and services standard.’”

G          “You can’t trust the government.  The government will simply print as much fiat paper as it wants.”

M          “There is not enough gold in existence today in the possession of the U.S. government to begin to back even a reasonable supply of money.  What is to stop the government you can’t trust from asserting that it has enough gold reserves to support whatever paper it puts into circulation?”

G          “That’s it.  You can’t trust the government, so you need the gold standard.”

M          “Advocating for a gold standard represents a yearning for governmental responsibility.  That is understandable.  I agree.  However, the gold standard is not the gold standard.  It is the fools gold standard.  We need a ‘goods and services standard.’  The fiat money supply must be tied to the goods and services in the economy with the goal of promoting price stability.”

. . .

Bumper stickers of the week:

The Gold Standard is not the Gold Standard.

The Au Standard is the FeS2 Standard.

Adopt the “Goods and Services Standard.”

The Double Ought (00) “Decadent Decade” (January 4, 2010)

Posted in Afghanistan, Bailout/Bribe, Bernanke, Bush, China, Congress, Debt/Deficits, Economics, Federal Reserve, Foreign Policy, Greenspan, Health Care, Housing, Iraq, O'Bama, Presidency, Supreme Court on January 4, 2010 by e-commentary.org

1999:  No major wars yet percolating problems in a dozen venues; budget deficit surplus of about 236 billion dollars, although Bush inherited about a 5.7 Trillion dollar National Debt; and a boiling but unstable and slowly cooling economy.

The decade that threatened to come in with a bang sauntered in with only the traditional fire works.  Y2K may have been such an epic universal non-event because everyone realized that it was a real deadline that could neither be disregarded nor overlooked.  It was not Y2.001K.  Problems were timely addressed in a timely manner in time.  That was not the attitude for the remainder of the decade.

An outwardly non-descript and largely unknown bumbling scion who had been shepherded by others for their own purposes through an uneventful life was appointed by the Supreme Court to run things.  The ship of state sailed uneventfully for a time.  A written invitation to impending disaster delivered to and disregarded by the White House in August, 2001 was honored in September, 2001 by a quartet of airships.  The course of action was simple.  Know who we are and remain faithful to who we are.  Stay our course.  Redouble our vigilance and redouble it again (and redouble it one more time).  Too many in power and influence in the country lost their heads.  Leadership was non-existent.

A perfect storm.  An obscenely incompetent President, a flagitious and arrogant vice-President, a smug, bungling and petulant Secretary of War/Defense (Rumsfeld), hamstrung Secretaries of State (Powell and Rice), a mendacious Secretary of the Treasury in the second term (Paulson), a marginal Attorney General (Gonzales) and their ilk were not the Dream Team.  The damage they inflicted in the decade will take decades to repair.

Bush proclaimed that WeMaD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) and almost everyone joined in the madness.  No one ever made a compelling case for the invasion of Iraq.  The national press (WP, NYT and so many others) yearned for war, any war, just give us a war with photo ops and film at eleven.  The major television networks (NBC, CBS, ABC, Faux) were thrilled and went wild with glee.  It was a time, the only time, to watch their coverage non-stop to bear witness in real time to the folly and the madness.  The few dissenting voices (Warren Strobel and Jonathan Landay with Knight Ridder’s Washington Bureau, Terry Gross and guests with NPR/Fresh Air, Walter Pincus with the WP and a few dozen other courageous individuals) did not reach a wide audience.  They were voices in the darkness.  The Iraq quagmire is the greatest foreign policy blunder in American history.

Deficit spending and economic looting became the national pastimes.  Almost everyone involved in directing and controlling the economy (Reagan, Gramm and Rubin in earlier decades with the assistance of Bush, Greenspan, Paulson, C. Cox, Geithner, Summers and others in this decade) almost without exception (Brooksley Born and a few others) were committed to undermining the American economy at every opportunity for the benefit of a few.  One must concede that they succeeded handsomely.  Although they are domestic economic terrorists, their activities never became the subject of the vaunted “war on terror.”  No one ever made a compelling case for the bribery and bailout of Wall Street.  Bernanke* remains the enigma, the outsider and the ultimate insider, who did not recognize what was obvious before and after he became Chairman in February, 2006 and disregarded the advice of his colleague Edward Gramlich.

The first African-Irish-American was elected President.  There were a few things they did not tell him before he got elected that he learned quickly after he got elected.  He re-nominated Bernanke* to run the Federal Reserve which may be the only option given the limited economic talent in America.  His appointments to date are adequate, yet the administration is still seeking traction and direction.  Health care is becoming his domestic economic quagmire.  Although it is not really the job of the government to provide jobs and/or homes, the populace wants a job to go to during the day and a house to come home to at night.

About the House.  And the Senate.  Congress could be declared a natural disaster area.  The Republicans are useless, the Democrats are not particularly useful.  Forty-five percent of Americans respond to and are motivated by fear and loathing; the Republicans know and stoke their base.  The Republicans may make great strides in the November elections.  The party committed to destroying government may again be given that opportunity.

The nine members of the Supreme Court are more myopic and narrow-minded than just about any other Court in the history of the Republic.  The Court sports two religions (with one exception), two schools (with one exception), and two (mas o menos) schools of thought (with a few exceptions), yet it has two women, too.  The war at the Court and for the Court continues.  O’Bama may have an impact, although the impact of the economy on O’Bama’s future will greatly impact his impact on the Supreme Court.

The profit-maximizing universities in America should be part of the solution, but they are part of the problem; they may be more accurately described as part of the process and the processing.  They recruit, train and drill the next McNamaras and Rumsfelds.  To their credit, they adhere to a thirty-year business plan rather than the three-month strategy pursued by other businesses.

The information made public in the National Intelligence Reports over the decade patiently and exhaustively chronicles the decline of America’s role in the world after six decades of preeminence.  America has done much wrong during that time, yet America has done far, far, far more good, often with resentment and usually without thanks.  On balance, everyone is better off with the United States as the dominant superpower.  This is China’s century.

Now:  Multiple wars, battles, skirmishes and police actions with two major foreign base camps (Iraq and Afghanistan); massive and growing deficits and about a 12.3 Trillion dollar National Debt; zero private-sector employment gain and zero economic gain for the average family over the decade; and no industry to inflate other than the federal government industrial complex.

[See the “e-ssays” dated Jan. 5, 2009 titled “The Millennium to Date”; dated October 6, 2008 titled “A Bleak Day:  The Trillion Dollar Tragedy”; dated September 29, 2008 titled “Futile Efforts”; dated May 4, 2009 titled “Picking the Supreme Beings”; dated May 14, 2007 titled “Term Limits”; and dated Jan. 30, 2006 titled “Greenspan’s Legacy:  Apres moi, Le Meltdown.”]

Bumper stickers of the week:

The Recession is Over.

The Recession is Over; Let the Depression Begin

Halcyon Ano Nuevo

An Economic Tsunami?: The Road Ahead (Dec. 14, 2009)

Posted in Bernanke, Depression, Dollar - World's Reserve Currency, Economics, Volker on December 14, 2009 by e-commentary.org

. . .

“Log this road map in the back of your mind.  The M3 money supply is no longer even reported. The world currently has reservations about the world’s reserve currency – our handy-dandy trusty dollar.  Petrodollar implodes; gold explodes.  Residential housing market, commercial real estate, and criminally over-leveraged corporations (LBOs) start really diving precipitously.  Fire employees; productivity/profits increase.  U6 unemployment up to 20% or more.  Fired employees decrease purchases; profits decrease.  Murdoch (Dow) down to 6K or less.  Gazillions of no good dollars spewed by the Fed; no goods are produced nor services provided by plundered economy.  Imagine unimaginable inflation exploding.  A great, catastrophic and unanticipated economic surprise surprises us.  And you get the Great Depression 2.0.  We are on the road.”

“To ruin?  To perdition?  To serfdom?  We’re Americans, we always do something.  We demand success and we expect success.  We can just decree that it not happen.”

“The problem is that nothing can be done effectively or efficiently to stimulate the economy when the economy at core is so fundamentally broken.  O’Bama inherited this imploding and exploding economy.  However, other than possibly some insights from Paul Volker and Warren Buffett, O’Bama has failed miserably in selecting his economic advisers.  He is now in control of an economy that is out of control and out of his control.  Many members of the public are angry, anxious, frightened, and desperate.”

“And there is nothing you can do about it.  Nothing.”

. . .

[The Murdoch (Dow) could go to 6,000 or 4,000 or 5,000 but not likely 36,000.  See the “e-ssay” dated Oct. 12, 2009 entitled “Dow: 10,000 To 5,000: The ‘FUBAR’ bubble” and the “e-ssay” dated May 11, 2005 entitled “The Coming Depression Is Not Depressing.”]

(O’Bama in Oslo.  “Si vis pacem, parati para bellum.”  Strong speech; right message.)

Bumper stickers of the week:

Next stop – Pottersville

Great Economic Tsunami 2010; Great Depression 2.0

The Republicans are part of the problem; the Democrats are not part of the solution.

Pass the Terrorist Tax

Domestic Economic Terrorism and National Security (Nov. 23, 2009)

Posted in Bailout/Bribe, Economics, Economics Nobel, Education on November 23, 2009 by e-commentary.org

. . .

“Their secret badge gives them away.  They sport the tell-tale ‘White Bling-Bling’ – the porcelain American flag on their blue serge suits.”

“And are themselves among the most vocal boosters of the ‘war on terror.’”

“They really are the economic terrorists.  And irony is not their strong suit.  I never fail to be amazed that the economic terrorists are roaming freely within our borders.  Their economic shenanigans produce absolutely no real economic, financial and/or fiscal benefit of any kind for anyone but themselves.”

“Look at it from their perspective.  They acquire a thriving company created and developed by others over years or decades, loot any funds for themselves, vest it with unbearable debt, fire the employees and ramble on to the next victim.  You have to admit that they are doing something.”

“There is no justification, no explanation, no rationale, and no excuse for their activities.  They steal from the public and ultimately loot the public fisc.  Can you name three individuals who have legitimately made a fortune in the last decade?”

“By name?”

“The robber barons of old actually produced something.  They produced a railroad or a newspaper or a steel plant and then endowed a university and a foundation.  Today’s economic terrorists are above the law because they own those who make the laws and those who interpret and enforce the laws.  The profitable universities exist to vet and supply obedient new recruits.  The Nobel Committee awards their mathematical sophistry.  The federal government rewards and bribes and bails out the players at every turn.  Everything is working against us.”

“And there is nothing you can do about it.  Nothing.”

“There are at least six major cavils with their exploits.  These economic terrorists threaten the efforts of generations of Americans who worked and sacrificed to:

form a more perfect Union,

establish Justice,

insure domestic Tranquility,

provide for the common defense,

promote the general Welfare, and

secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity.”

“And thwart the pursuit of happiness.”

“That too.  Willfully destroying the American economy is also willfully destroying America.  That is a threat to American security.  That is treason.”

. . .

[See the “e-ssay” dated Nov. 27, 2006 entitled “Higher Education Tomorrow” discussing the pipeline of privileged kids pouring into I (investment) banking, the “e-ssay” dated Feb. 23, 2009 entitled “Close the Harvard Business School,” the “e-ssay” dated Oct. 6, 2009 entitled “Skip the Nobel in Economics?,” and the “e-ssay” dated Feb. 9, 2009 entitled “1000 AUSAs” suggesting that a return to the rule of law or a turn to the rule of law is warranted.  That will require the courts to issue many warrants.  The other “e-ssays” collected under the “Categories” for “Economics” and “Federal Reserve” among others provide additional pieces of the puzzle.]

Take it easy Thursday.

Bumper stickers of the week:

Support the “War on Terror”: Indict an Economic Terrorist

Better to know the judge and to own the lawmakers than to know the law and adhere to it.

V, W, U, S or . . . L: The Shape of Things to Come (Nov. 16, 2009)

Posted in "L" Shaped Economy, Economics on November 16, 2009 by e-commentary.org

Everything that goes down must go up, they say.  It is one of Newton’s or Van Braun’s laws.  Some are saying that the performance of the economy will resemble the letter “V.”  Down then up.  Some say a “W.”  Down then up then down then up.  Some say a “U” with perhaps a long trough then up.  Some say an “S” because the fundamentals are so squirrelly. The logic undergirding the arguments is that the economy will recover because it has always recovered; that is what economies do.

What if the economic performance will be reflected by the letter “L?”  Lima.  Loser.  Down then flat then flat then flat.  What if the economy never recovers or only partially recovers?  Past economic recoveries are explained by scrutinizing the economic fundamentals at the time.  The problem now is that the American economy is fundamentally broken.  None of the optimists can posit a model that reflects the actual fundamentals in the economy.  Everyone would like to see a recovery, yet there does not seem to be anything that will drive and sustain the economy in the intermediate run.

The federal government owes staggering sums to the Chinese, etc.; corporations owe staggering sums to their bond holders; Americans owe and owe and owe staggering sums.  The threats to the economy are far greater than they were in the Fall of 2008 when everyone got apoplectic.  Uncollectable credit card debt, growing housing foreclosures, vacant commercial real estate and hollow corporations obligated for trillions in debt are among the coming economic tsunamis.

Invest in a wheelbarrow.  To haul your bread (money) from your banker to your baker to buy a $100 loaf of bread.

[See the “e-ssay” dated Oct. 22, 2007 entitled “Greed on Steroids” that discusses among other matters the looming intermediate term problems with leveraged buyouts and the consequences for the economy in particular employment.]

Bumper sticker of the week:

“Everything that goes up must come down.  But there comes a time when not everything that’s down can come up.”      George Burns

Consume, Don’t Invest? (Nov. 9, 2009)

Posted in Consumerism, Economics, Society, Spending on November 9, 2009 by e-commentary.org

We have been consuming far too much for far too long.  And now someone is saying that we should start consuming more?

Homes are amassed as investments.  (“We will double our money in three years.”)  Wine, etc. is acquired because it is a good play.  (“These bottles will pay off big time at maturity.”)  Art is not art because it is artistic, it is art because someone will part with more money for it.  (“I hadn’t heard of him either, but it will only go up in value especially when he dies.  . . .   Frankly, I don’t like his stuff either.”)

Seems that one should pick up a home to provide comfortable and affordable living space.  Purchase wine to enjoy.  Collect art to delight, shock, evoke, challenge, inspire, threaten, entertain, etc.

Consume responsibly; invest wisely.

Bumper stickers of the week:

Work, Buy, Consume, Die.         Why?

Home appreciated home.

A home to inhabit, wine to imbibe, art to admire.

Sagacious Financial Advice From A Financial Sage (Nov. 2, 2009)

Posted in Bailout/Bribe, Economics on November 2, 2009 by e-commentary.org

“Son, I’ve got two pieces of advice for you.  One, never let your investments out of your sight.  Two, never give your money to someone else to invest.  And while we are at it, a third piece of advice.  Never trust a banker.”

The work “banker” is derived from the word for “bench” because individuals waited on a bench to obtain a loan.  We may need to bench the bankers.  The entire economic system is premised and predicated on trust and yet the entire American economic system is built on deception and mistrust.

Bumper stickers of the week:

Re-enact The Glass-Steagall Act

Never Trust a Banker (What about a credit union officer?)

Dow: 10,000 To 5,000?: The “FUBAR Bubble” (Oct. 12, 2009)

Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve on October 12, 2009 by e-commentary.org

“Ten thousand.  And they say the good times are rolling. ”

“It’s just another bubble.  We uploaded the ‘dot.com bubble’ and then constructed the ‘real estate bubble.’  Now the Republicans and Democrats in an ironic act of unintended bipartisanship are inflating the ‘FUBAR bubble’ which will only inflate the economy and precipitate a sustained jobless Depression.  Combine unaccountable spending by Congress and unacknowledged spending by the other Congress, the Federal Reserve, and you create the ‘FUBAR bubble.’”

“How can everyone forget in a year?  I don’t know what to do with my money.  Everyone is dumping their money back into the market.  It’s tempting.  What else do you do?”

“I don’t know what to do.  Remember that no one wants to remember something negative, so one simply does not remember.  All the federal borrowing is not even ‘crowding out’ private investment because there is no real private investment in anything productive.  Most of the reported corporate profits are either federal money infiltrating the economic system temporarily or savings resulting from cost cutting not expansion.  Jobs are being slashed to slash costs that ends up costing the economy.  Add a Trillion dollars of uncollectable credit card debt and the coming commercial real estate collapse to the scenario and the scene gets ugly.”

“What about deflation?  No one has a job.  No one has money.  No one can buy anything.  Oil prices are down.  Copper prices are down.  Aluminum prices are down.  Prices will go down?”

“Down plus down plus down plus down plus down does not seem to add up to up.  I’ve watched the slide.  Yet people spend and consume.  They need to eat and wear clothes and clothe themselves in a house and acquire that most elusive good – status.  There are boatloads of money floating around out there and no limits on personal credit.  However, there are not enough goods to acquire.  The government can print bread (money), but it cannot print bread.”

. . .

“The Fall of 1999 seemed so blissful.  There was a feel and the smell of easy money in the air.  And talk of a 36,000 Dow.  That bubble was made of thin air.  What was in the water?”

“Everyone was giddy; I was uneasy.  I have not been able to share in all the excitement.  We were raised to believe that a P/E (Price/Earnings) ratio of 12 is desirable, 16 is tenable and 20 is tenuous.  The share prices were huge and there simply were no earnings and no real prospects for earning.”

“Those were the days.”

“Even I got caught up in a calculated slice of it.  Can you imagine if a person could have ‘shorted’ the entire United States economy in October, 2007 when the Dow/Murdoch hit fourteen thousand?  Someone could have made one trillion dollars and then bought Congress and cleaned up the mess.  The dot.com collapse was largely benign because it immediately impacted those who had ridden the rise which contained the consequences.  The continuing real estate collapse is having much more sustained and pernicious impacts because it is a steady and slow burning fuse.  The ‘FUBAR bubble’ is breaking the economy.  The ‘Federally Underwritten Bankruptcy of the American Republic’ is the last bubble.  There is nothing left to stimulate.”

[See the “e-ssay” dated Dec. 4, 2006 entitled “When The Bubble Burst” addressing the relatively modest consequences resulting from the decline of the “dot.com bubble” and the troubling and continuing impact of the collapse of the “real estate bubble.” See the “e-ssay” dated July 23, 2007 entitled “The Dow Jones (the Murdoch?) Hits 14 K In A Hollow Economy” discussing the stock market on the edge of a precipitous collapse.]

Bumper sticker of the week:

Please, just give us just one more run up and we won’t blow this one.

Skip the Nobel in Economics? (Oct. 6, 2009)

Posted in Awards / Incentives, Economics, Economics Nobel on October 6, 2009 by e-commentary.org

Nobel Prizes are announced in the next week.  This may be the year not to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Science in Memory of Alfred Nobel.  Okay, there may be some deserving recipients.  Maybe.  However, the discipline and the profession are failing.

Macroeconomic models are founded on fallacious assumptions about “rational” behavior and thus their conclusions are unfounded.  An individual is greedy but not rational in a predictable way.  Few individuals act in a “self-interested” way which is adequately defined as gilded greed undergirded by thought, reflection and calculation.

The “quants” on Wall Street may be quaint.  They are the economists who purported to be able to assess and manage and even eliminate risk using complex and inscrutable formulas.  There is always risk; the only question is who assumes the risk and suffers the downside.  Asserting and rewarding the proposition that “2 + 2 = 5” does not mean that “2 + 2 = 5.”  The quants and their kin were engaged in fraud perpetrated with numbers and formulas rather than with letters and syntax.  The Nobel Committee rewarded their efforts; the government rewarded their failures.

Someone interested in pursuing a Piled higher & Deeper (Ph.D.) in economics must buy into the established orthodoxy of a school and a school of thought.  Someone matriculating at a university is endorsing a worldview that is not based on an accurate view of the world.  The free-for-all culture in economics departments does not promote or provoke unrestrained free thought.  Economics departments are profit maximizing; they will produce whatever is rewarded.

Or they should give it to someone who knows something about economics and has conveyed a few sound ideas.

Bumper sticker of the week:

If all economists were laid end to end, they would reach the wrong conclusions.

Europe: Boycott America (Sept. 28, 2009)

Posted in Boycott Series, Dollar - World's Reserve Currency, Economics, Europe, Kleptocracy on September 28, 2009 by e-commentary.org

How enlightened Europe could get suckered by and sucked into the Great American Meltdown is bewildering.  Those with some distance and perspective should have seen that the American economy was hollow and vacant as early as 2005 if not earlier.  Countries such as Iceland and Ireland – good people all – and cities, towns, and villages throughout Europe largely brought it on themselves because they bought the lies and the poison from America.  The financial products exported from America had to look suspicious at the time.

Europe should boycott America.  Really.  In a rational and purposeful way.  Purchasing and holding dollars may make economic sense in the future.  If so, buy bucks.  The decision may get more problematic when the dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency.

Holding American bonds may make economic sense in the future.  If so, investigate them with care and acquire them.  Keep in mind that American municipalities and other political subdivisions can file bankruptcy.

However, the financial sector in America is corrupt to the core.  O’Bama is trying to clean up the mess, yet he cannot surmount the entrenched financial community.  Only powerful financial/economic/political market forces will compel change in the American financial markets.  The pressure may need to come from overseas.

Bumper sticker of the week (sported on a red Renault convertible sports car):

USA:  Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.