Archive for the Federal Reserve Category

On The Bribe/Bailout And Financial Reform (July 26, 2010)

Posted in Bailout/Bribe, Banks and Banking System, Bernanke, Federal Reserve, Journalism, Press/Media, TARP on July 26, 2010 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “So many commentators contend that the bailout/bribe of 2008 saved the American economy, yet they do not provide any detailed discussion or explanation.  Few seem to be challenging the conclusion.”

J          “When you think about it, no one has offered a coherent explanation of two things.  No one has explained the exposure of the economy and the problems encountered in September, 2008; no one has traced the impacts and consequences of the bailout, good and bad.”

K          “Spewing money randomly was unwise and counterproductive.  The market was the only way to purge the excesses of the market.  Purging the economy of the poison would have been painful, yet we as a country would be much better off in the intermediate and long runs.”

J          “Not many commentators were sounding warnings in 2005 or earlier.  I recall some warnings and misgivings from a few writers with the conventional press.  I also recall scattered concerns shared in some of these things called ‘blogs.’  Yet there was not enough chatter to capture the public imagination and stir any action or pause.”

K          “Some reports suggest that the some government funds have been repaid.  There is no way to verify the claims.  The Federal Reserve in particular is exempt by statute from any effective scrutiny, oversight and regulation.”

J          “The financial reform bill may be one of those bills that has not been read carefully by its proponents or by its opponents.  However, I believe that a small group of connected individuals is making far too much money to allow any meaningful reform to pass.”

K          “Aren’t we in worse economic trouble now because things have not changed.  Yet no one is really worried.”

J          “Too few journalists, even economic journalists, understand the economy.  Just reading and digesting the public statements issued by the Federal Reserve is almost a full time job.  The popular press may summarize some of the information in the Beige Book and G.19 Consumer Credit reports, yet there is not much analysis.  Who has the background and the experience to connect the dots.  And who do you trust.”

. . .

Bumper stickers of the week:

Don’t end the Fed; mend the Fed

ABCNNBCBS does not have many answers; Faux/Fox does not even ask the right questions.

“Ever since my husband began listening to NPR, he is so informed . . . and so depressed.”

The Double Ought (00) “Decadent Decade” (January 4, 2010)

Posted in Afghanistan, Bailout/Bribe, Bernanke, Bush, China, Congress, Debt/Deficits, Economics, Federal Reserve, Foreign Policy, Greenspan, Health Care, Housing, Iraq, O'Bama, Presidency, Supreme Court on January 4, 2010 by e-commentary.org

1999:  No major wars yet percolating problems in a dozen venues; budget deficit surplus of about 236 billion dollars, although Bush inherited about a 5.7 Trillion dollar National Debt; and a boiling but unstable and slowly cooling economy.

The decade that threatened to come in with a bang sauntered in with only the traditional fire works.  Y2K may have been such an epic universal non-event because everyone realized that it was a real deadline that could neither be disregarded nor overlooked.  It was not Y2.001K.  Problems were timely addressed in a timely manner in time.  That was not the attitude for the remainder of the decade.

An outwardly non-descript and largely unknown bumbling scion who had been shepherded by others for their own purposes through an uneventful life was appointed by the Supreme Court to run things.  The ship of state sailed uneventfully for a time.  A written invitation to impending disaster delivered to and disregarded by the White House in August, 2001 was honored in September, 2001 by a quartet of airships.  The course of action was simple.  Know who we are and remain faithful to who we are.  Stay our course.  Redouble our vigilance and redouble it again (and redouble it one more time).  Too many in power and influence in the country lost their heads.  Leadership was non-existent.

A perfect storm.  An obscenely incompetent President, a flagitious and arrogant vice-President, a smug, bungling and petulant Secretary of War/Defense (Rumsfeld), hamstrung Secretaries of State (Powell and Rice), a mendacious Secretary of the Treasury in the second term (Paulson), a marginal Attorney General (Gonzales) and their ilk were not the Dream Team.  The damage they inflicted in the decade will take decades to repair.

Bush proclaimed that WeMaD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) and almost everyone joined in the madness.  No one ever made a compelling case for the invasion of Iraq.  The national press (WP, NYT and so many others) yearned for war, any war, just give us a war with photo ops and film at eleven.  The major television networks (NBC, CBS, ABC, Faux) were thrilled and went wild with glee.  It was a time, the only time, to watch their coverage non-stop to bear witness in real time to the folly and the madness.  The few dissenting voices (Warren Strobel and Jonathan Landay with Knight Ridder’s Washington Bureau, Terry Gross and guests with NPR/Fresh Air, Walter Pincus with the WP and a few dozen other courageous individuals) did not reach a wide audience.  They were voices in the darkness.  The Iraq quagmire is the greatest foreign policy blunder in American history.

Deficit spending and economic looting became the national pastimes.  Almost everyone involved in directing and controlling the economy (Reagan, Gramm and Rubin in earlier decades with the assistance of Bush, Greenspan, Paulson, C. Cox, Geithner, Summers and others in this decade) almost without exception (Brooksley Born and a few others) were committed to undermining the American economy at every opportunity for the benefit of a few.  One must concede that they succeeded handsomely.  Although they are domestic economic terrorists, their activities never became the subject of the vaunted “war on terror.”  No one ever made a compelling case for the bribery and bailout of Wall Street.  Bernanke* remains the enigma, the outsider and the ultimate insider, who did not recognize what was obvious before and after he became Chairman in February, 2006 and disregarded the advice of his colleague Edward Gramlich.

The first African-Irish-American was elected President.  There were a few things they did not tell him before he got elected that he learned quickly after he got elected.  He re-nominated Bernanke* to run the Federal Reserve which may be the only option given the limited economic talent in America.  His appointments to date are adequate, yet the administration is still seeking traction and direction.  Health care is becoming his domestic economic quagmire.  Although it is not really the job of the government to provide jobs and/or homes, the populace wants a job to go to during the day and a house to come home to at night.

About the House.  And the Senate.  Congress could be declared a natural disaster area.  The Republicans are useless, the Democrats are not particularly useful.  Forty-five percent of Americans respond to and are motivated by fear and loathing; the Republicans know and stoke their base.  The Republicans may make great strides in the November elections.  The party committed to destroying government may again be given that opportunity.

The nine members of the Supreme Court are more myopic and narrow-minded than just about any other Court in the history of the Republic.  The Court sports two religions (with one exception), two schools (with one exception), and two (mas o menos) schools of thought (with a few exceptions), yet it has two women, too.  The war at the Court and for the Court continues.  O’Bama may have an impact, although the impact of the economy on O’Bama’s future will greatly impact his impact on the Supreme Court.

The profit-maximizing universities in America should be part of the solution, but they are part of the problem; they may be more accurately described as part of the process and the processing.  They recruit, train and drill the next McNamaras and Rumsfelds.  To their credit, they adhere to a thirty-year business plan rather than the three-month strategy pursued by other businesses.

The information made public in the National Intelligence Reports over the decade patiently and exhaustively chronicles the decline of America’s role in the world after six decades of preeminence.  America has done much wrong during that time, yet America has done far, far, far more good, often with resentment and usually without thanks.  On balance, everyone is better off with the United States as the dominant superpower.  This is China’s century.

Now:  Multiple wars, battles, skirmishes and police actions with two major foreign base camps (Iraq and Afghanistan); massive and growing deficits and about a 12.3 Trillion dollar National Debt; zero private-sector employment gain and zero economic gain for the average family over the decade; and no industry to inflate other than the federal government industrial complex.

[See the “e-ssays” dated Jan. 5, 2009 titled “The Millennium to Date”; dated October 6, 2008 titled “A Bleak Day:  The Trillion Dollar Tragedy”; dated September 29, 2008 titled “Futile Efforts”; dated May 4, 2009 titled “Picking the Supreme Beings”; dated May 14, 2007 titled “Term Limits”; and dated Jan. 30, 2006 titled “Greenspan’s Legacy:  Apres moi, Le Meltdown.”]

Bumper stickers of the week:

The Recession is Over.

The Recession is Over; Let the Depression Begin

Halcyon Ano Nuevo

Dow: 10,000 To 5,000?: The “FUBAR Bubble” (Oct. 12, 2009)

Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve on October 12, 2009 by e-commentary.org

“Ten thousand.  And they say the good times are rolling. ”

“It’s just another bubble.  We uploaded the ‘dot.com bubble’ and then constructed the ‘real estate bubble.’  Now the Republicans and Democrats in an ironic act of unintended bipartisanship are inflating the ‘FUBAR bubble’ which will only inflate the economy and precipitate a sustained jobless Depression.  Combine unaccountable spending by Congress and unacknowledged spending by the other Congress, the Federal Reserve, and you create the ‘FUBAR bubble.’”

“How can everyone forget in a year?  I don’t know what to do with my money.  Everyone is dumping their money back into the market.  It’s tempting.  What else do you do?”

“I don’t know what to do.  Remember that no one wants to remember something negative, so one simply does not remember.  All the federal borrowing is not even ‘crowding out’ private investment because there is no real private investment in anything productive.  Most of the reported corporate profits are either federal money infiltrating the economic system temporarily or savings resulting from cost cutting not expansion.  Jobs are being slashed to slash costs that ends up costing the economy.  Add a Trillion dollars of uncollectable credit card debt and the coming commercial real estate collapse to the scenario and the scene gets ugly.”

“What about deflation?  No one has a job.  No one has money.  No one can buy anything.  Oil prices are down.  Copper prices are down.  Aluminum prices are down.  Prices will go down?”

“Down plus down plus down plus down plus down does not seem to add up to up.  I’ve watched the slide.  Yet people spend and consume.  They need to eat and wear clothes and clothe themselves in a house and acquire that most elusive good – status.  There are boatloads of money floating around out there and no limits on personal credit.  However, there are not enough goods to acquire.  The government can print bread (money), but it cannot print bread.”

. . .

“The Fall of 1999 seemed so blissful.  There was a feel and the smell of easy money in the air.  And talk of a 36,000 Dow.  That bubble was made of thin air.  What was in the water?”

“Everyone was giddy; I was uneasy.  I have not been able to share in all the excitement.  We were raised to believe that a P/E (Price/Earnings) ratio of 12 is desirable, 16 is tenable and 20 is tenuous.  The share prices were huge and there simply were no earnings and no real prospects for earning.”

“Those were the days.”

“Even I got caught up in a calculated slice of it.  Can you imagine if a person could have ‘shorted’ the entire United States economy in October, 2007 when the Dow/Murdoch hit fourteen thousand?  Someone could have made one trillion dollars and then bought Congress and cleaned up the mess.  The dot.com collapse was largely benign because it immediately impacted those who had ridden the rise which contained the consequences.  The continuing real estate collapse is having much more sustained and pernicious impacts because it is a steady and slow burning fuse.  The ‘FUBAR bubble’ is breaking the economy.  The ‘Federally Underwritten Bankruptcy of the American Republic’ is the last bubble.  There is nothing left to stimulate.”

[See the “e-ssay” dated Dec. 4, 2006 entitled “When The Bubble Burst” addressing the relatively modest consequences resulting from the decline of the “dot.com bubble” and the troubling and continuing impact of the collapse of the “real estate bubble.” See the “e-ssay” dated July 23, 2007 entitled “The Dow Jones (the Murdoch?) Hits 14 K In A Hollow Economy” discussing the stock market on the edge of a precipitous collapse.]

Bumper sticker of the week:

Please, just give us just one more run up and we won’t blow this one.

The Meltdown Continues, Subtly (Sept. 14, 2009)

Posted in Bailout/Bribe, Bernanke, Economics, Federal Reserve on September 14, 2009 by e-commentary.org

We mark 9/15 tomorrow as the day Lehman Bros. failed.  By then, America had failed.  Senator McCain had proclaimed the fundamentals of the economy to be sound, although they were fundamentally unsound.  A “red-letter day” marks the day when America did something to stay “in the black,” albeit a small step, by not doing something.  Lehman failed and was allowed to go the way of all flesh in a capitalist system; Lehman was allowed to die and file a petition in bankruptcy.  One wonders if Lehman received this “special treatment” because of a personality dispute between its then president Fuld and then Secretary of Treasury Paulson.  America would have been better off with more such personality disputes.

Bribing the perpetrators of other failed financial institutions was not the appropriate strategy to purge the poison in the financial system.  Bush, Paulson and Bernanke should have done nothing prior to and after Lehman.  Only the market could flush the filth out of a broken financial system.

Doing nothing would have had immediate and negative economic and thus political consequences.  Doing something will have much greater and much graver economic consequences for a generation or more.

The appropriate decision is part economic and part moral.  Future (and present, subtly) generations were jettisoned to keep a failed financial system limping along today and to delay the day of reckoning until someone else’s watch.

The Economic Terrorists own Congress and control O’Bama lock, stock and sinker.  There is not much hope of change.

Bumper sticker of the week:

America:  California Writ Large

Bernanke 2.0 (August 31, 2009)

Posted in Bernanke, Economics, Federal Reserve, Greenspan, Volker on August 31, 2009 by e-commentary.org

Bush’s best appointment is one of O’Bama’s better reappointments.  Bernanke is not the best choice yet is the right choice at this time.  Yet there should be some reservation about and reflection on the entire Federal Reserve scheme.

The Founding Fathers as they are known could not agree on the creation of a central bank.  The issue was at the heart of many early presidential elections.  Every sovereign nation needs a central bank.  The bankers created a central bank in 1913 and filled the vacuum.  America must examine the role of the Federal Reserve and incorporate it into our constitutional system characterized by a separation of powers and accountability to the populace.

The central bank has a history of competent and independent chairmen such as Paul Volker who pursued some harsh policies with painful but necessary consequences without any significant political intervention.

Alan Greenspan, a conservative Republican, acted as the “central planner” of the economy for far too may years with devastating consequences.  At least he has enough integrity and self-awareness to admit some mistakes.  Some thoughtful political intervention was appropriate and necessary during his tenure.

Faith in the Fed. has dissuaded Congress from taking more direct control and dictating policy.  Legislation such as the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act does set some guidelines and parameters.  However, the Fed cannot and should not attempt to establish full employment.

At this time, Ben Bernanke is determining both “monetary policy” and “fiscal policy.”  Fiscal policy has been and should be the province of Congress.  Monetary policy should focus on price stability.

Who should address these matters?  The politicians.  That should give one pause and yet motivate us to act.

Bumper sticker of the week:

Price stability

Printing Electrons? (December 1, 2008)

Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, Inflation on December 1, 2008 by e-commentary.org

The Federal Reserve is running the “printing presses” 24/7.  The Fed. issues regular press releases announcing:

Federal Reserve will offer $150 billion in 28-day credit through Term Auction facility [yesterday].

Federal Reserve announces results of auction of $150 billion in 28-day credit held on [yesterday].

Federal Reserve will offer $150 billion in 28-day credit through Term Auction facility today.

Federal Reserve announces results of auction of $150 billion in 28-day credit held today.

Federal Reserve will offer $150 billion in 28-day credit through Term Auction facility [tomorrow].

Federal Reserve announces results of auction of $150 billion in 28-day credit held on [tomorrow].

. . . . . . . . . .

The amount raised and the term may vary, yet the country is burrowing in deeper at a faster rate.

Bumper stickers of the week:

The Trillion is the new Billion.

“A billion [Trillion] here, a billion [Trillion] there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.”                                        Attributed (perhaps incorrectly) to Everett Dirksen

The Building Tsunami (October 13, 2008)

Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, Housing on October 13, 2008 by e-commentary.org

Things are collapsing.  The mortgage/house is no longer an ATM (Automatic Teller Machine).  Mortgages were given to individuals who could not pay.  At least with a mortgage there was a structure providing some collateral to support the loan.

The populace is still spending beyond their means.  The staggering amount of credit card debt is another Great Tsunami.  Credit cards are being given if not shoved down the throats of individuals who cannot pay.  These Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are plastic explosives delivered daily by the United States Postal Service.  They will all explode within the next year.  And then the Congress, the Fed. (Federal Reserves system), and the business and economic press will express surprise, display panic and engender fear.

The geopolitical concerns are overlooked or disregarded.  The rest of the world is now taking over the US by “investment not invasion” as American becomes a “second world former superpower.”  More later.

Bumper sticker of the week:

Déjà vu all over again?

A Bleak Day: The Trillion Dollar Tragedy (October 6, 2008)

Posted in Bailout/Bribe, Bush, Debt/Deficits, Economics, Federal Reserve, Greenspan, USA PATRIOT Act on October 6, 2008 by e-commentary.org

Congress failed.  Again.  The Bailout Bill will accelerate the Meltdown by misallocating funds and burning day light needed to address the underlying problems.

A three page travesty delivered by Bush became a 451 page travesty cum pork adopted by Congress.  These votes may rank with the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, the Iraq war resolution, and the USA PATRIOT Act vote.

The public saw a 1.1 Trillion dollar drop in the value of their investments/401(k) IRAs last Monday and seemed to believe that a 700+ Billion bribe was worth the gamble.  The Bailout Bill will cost at least 1 Trillion to administer directly and will cause Trillions more in losses and damage.  Bribing the big players not to pull the plug until after the election is over is almost criminal if not treasonous.

Few note that the current crisis will be made worse by this bailout/bribe.  Beyond concerns about “moral hazard” and “bailouts for billionaires,” the problem is that the bailout is creating an even great credit crunch for the country.  There is way too much money in the economic system in the wrong hands.  The new money is being funneled into the wrong vessel, into a bowl not a colander.  The money will be hoarded.  The money is being not made available to the public.

Raising the deposit amount insured by the FDIC from $100,000 to $250,000 appears to offer something to the public, yet it also discourages the individual investor from monitoring his or her financial institution.  Individuals are deluded into believing that everything is ducky.  Individuals not just the government must act as regulators.  Banks that will soon be taken over by the FDIC are offering much higher interest rates to gobble up as much money as possible before the collapse.

Consumer confidence has never been higher.  Consumers are confident that the entire economic and political system is broken.

Business confidence has never been higher.  Businesspersons know that they are lying and, of greater import, that all other businesspersons are lying.  Reading between the lines of the economic reports is a challenge.  Reading between the lies is vexing.

So many fought to declare and establish independence for this country.  Last Friday, Congress voted to establish and fund a czar/dictator/central planner.  Two hundred thirty-two years later, we have a King of Finance.  Emperor Paulson.  One of the individuals who created the problem has been crowned to deepen it.

Fear once again triumphed over hope and reason.

Bumper stickers of the week:

Those who repeat history are doomed to repeat history.

If you think 401(k) is your mother-in-law’s bra size, then you might be a redneck.

—–Jeff Foxworthy

More Fun At The Fed (December 11, 2007)

Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, Inflation on December 11, 2007 by e-commentary.org

On September 18, the Fed reduced the FFR (Federal Funds Rate) by .5 percent; on October 31, the Fed reduced the FFR by .25 percent.  The pundits claim that the Fed will reduce the FFR by another .25 or .50 percent tomorrow.

Reducing the FFR results in the injection of even more paper money into the economy.  There are already too many dollars chasing too few goods and services even if those dollars are being hoarded by some skeptical lenders at this time.  The additional money is not going to spur the production of additional goods and services; the production of goods in China and the provision of services by India are responsive to other factors.  The additional money in circulation will only drive up the cost of the available goods and services which means we suffer. . . inflation.  “Price stability” (holding down inflation) was one of Ben Bernanke’s primary concerns in his previous academic writings.  He also studied the relationship between a lack of liquidity and the Great Depression and is aware of the precarious national predicament.

The Economy is threatened.  The decline in the dollar (in relation to the Canadian “Looney” and the Euro and beaver pelts) is having and will have deleterious impacts even though some American exporters benefit.  The gradual transition from the Petrodollar to the PetroEuro is more than symbolic.  The United States government is paying less interest for Treasury bills and bonds, but that may soon spawn less interest among potential investors in the bills and bonds.  Then the United States will need to pay more interest to attract interest.  The low interest rates also discourage what little savings there is in the United States today.  Reducing the FFR is appearing to be a bailout for Wall Street at the expense of other individuals and policy concerns and objectives.

Bumper sticker of the week:

Stagflation Again?

The Legacy Of “Easy Al” And Easy Money (October 15, 2007)

Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, Gold Standard, Greenspan, Housing on October 15, 2007 by e-commentary.org

John and Johanna, Juan and Juanita, Ivan and Ivana, their story is archetypical in architecture today.  They should have purchased a 1400 square foot starter apartment, but they were induced and seduced into purchasing a 2200 square foot single family two-story home.  They could not afford much more than the down payment.  They could not afford the subsequent 359 monthly payments.  They are being evicted.  They will have to live somewhere, someone observes.  They need to find a 1400 square foot apartment, but there are few available and many other evictees and evacuees competing for them.  And what about the 2200 square foot abode?  It sits empty.  (See the e-ssay dated April 24, 2006).

“Easy Al” Greenspan never met a problem he would not fix with a fix of easy money.  The Fed is charged with addressing monetary policy not fiscal policy.  He set fiscal policy without even acknowledging the need for safeguards against the irrationality his monetary policy unleashed.  Be suspicious of someone who falls under the spell of one and only one cult commentator; someone should distill the thoughts of 371 (give or take) thinkers in developing a worldview.  The Gold Standard crowd almost appears reasonable.  At least a gold standard sets a standard for the money supply.  Sound monetary policy requires a “goods and services” standard/benchmark.  The amount of paper injected into the economy should be measured against the goods and services.  Instead, more money than necessary was hurled at problems thereby begetting more problems.

Bumper sticker of the week:

“A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.”  Oscar Wilde