Archive for the Foreign Policy Category

The Double Ought (00) “Decadent Decade” (January 4, 2010)

Posted in Afghanistan, Bailout/Bribe, Bernanke, Bush, China, Congress, Debt/Deficits, Economics, Federal Reserve, Foreign Policy, Greenspan, Health Care, Housing, Iraq, O'Bama, Presidency, Supreme Court on January 4, 2010 by e-commentary.org

1999:  No major wars yet percolating problems in a dozen venues; budget deficit surplus of about 236 billion dollars, although Bush inherited about a 5.7 Trillion dollar National Debt; and a boiling but unstable and slowly cooling economy.

The decade that threatened to come in with a bang sauntered in with only the traditional fire works.  Y2K may have been such an epic universal non-event because everyone realized that it was a real deadline that could neither be disregarded nor overlooked.  It was not Y2.001K.  Problems were timely addressed in a timely manner in time.  That was not the attitude for the remainder of the decade.

An outwardly non-descript and largely unknown bumbling scion who had been shepherded by others for their own purposes through an uneventful life was appointed by the Supreme Court to run things.  The ship of state sailed uneventfully for a time.  A written invitation to impending disaster delivered to and disregarded by the White House in August, 2001 was honored in September, 2001 by a quartet of airships.  The course of action was simple.  Know who we are and remain faithful to who we are.  Stay our course.  Redouble our vigilance and redouble it again (and redouble it one more time).  Too many in power and influence in the country lost their heads.  Leadership was non-existent.

A perfect storm.  An obscenely incompetent President, a flagitious and arrogant vice-President, a smug, bungling and petulant Secretary of War/Defense (Rumsfeld), hamstrung Secretaries of State (Powell and Rice), a mendacious Secretary of the Treasury in the second term (Paulson), a marginal Attorney General (Gonzales) and their ilk were not the Dream Team.  The damage they inflicted in the decade will take decades to repair.

Bush proclaimed that WeMaD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) and almost everyone joined in the madness.  No one ever made a compelling case for the invasion of Iraq.  The national press (WP, NYT and so many others) yearned for war, any war, just give us a war with photo ops and film at eleven.  The major television networks (NBC, CBS, ABC, Faux) were thrilled and went wild with glee.  It was a time, the only time, to watch their coverage non-stop to bear witness in real time to the folly and the madness.  The few dissenting voices (Warren Strobel and Jonathan Landay with Knight Ridder’s Washington Bureau, Terry Gross and guests with NPR/Fresh Air, Walter Pincus with the WP and a few dozen other courageous individuals) did not reach a wide audience.  They were voices in the darkness.  The Iraq quagmire is the greatest foreign policy blunder in American history.

Deficit spending and economic looting became the national pastimes.  Almost everyone involved in directing and controlling the economy (Reagan, Gramm and Rubin in earlier decades with the assistance of Bush, Greenspan, Paulson, C. Cox, Geithner, Summers and others in this decade) almost without exception (Brooksley Born and a few others) were committed to undermining the American economy at every opportunity for the benefit of a few.  One must concede that they succeeded handsomely.  Although they are domestic economic terrorists, their activities never became the subject of the vaunted “war on terror.”  No one ever made a compelling case for the bribery and bailout of Wall Street.  Bernanke* remains the enigma, the outsider and the ultimate insider, who did not recognize what was obvious before and after he became Chairman in February, 2006 and disregarded the advice of his colleague Edward Gramlich.

The first African-Irish-American was elected President.  There were a few things they did not tell him before he got elected that he learned quickly after he got elected.  He re-nominated Bernanke* to run the Federal Reserve which may be the only option given the limited economic talent in America.  His appointments to date are adequate, yet the administration is still seeking traction and direction.  Health care is becoming his domestic economic quagmire.  Although it is not really the job of the government to provide jobs and/or homes, the populace wants a job to go to during the day and a house to come home to at night.

About the House.  And the Senate.  Congress could be declared a natural disaster area.  The Republicans are useless, the Democrats are not particularly useful.  Forty-five percent of Americans respond to and are motivated by fear and loathing; the Republicans know and stoke their base.  The Republicans may make great strides in the November elections.  The party committed to destroying government may again be given that opportunity.

The nine members of the Supreme Court are more myopic and narrow-minded than just about any other Court in the history of the Republic.  The Court sports two religions (with one exception), two schools (with one exception), and two (mas o menos) schools of thought (with a few exceptions), yet it has two women, too.  The war at the Court and for the Court continues.  O’Bama may have an impact, although the impact of the economy on O’Bama’s future will greatly impact his impact on the Supreme Court.

The profit-maximizing universities in America should be part of the solution, but they are part of the problem; they may be more accurately described as part of the process and the processing.  They recruit, train and drill the next McNamaras and Rumsfelds.  To their credit, they adhere to a thirty-year business plan rather than the three-month strategy pursued by other businesses.

The information made public in the National Intelligence Reports over the decade patiently and exhaustively chronicles the decline of America’s role in the world after six decades of preeminence.  America has done much wrong during that time, yet America has done far, far, far more good, often with resentment and usually without thanks.  On balance, everyone is better off with the United States as the dominant superpower.  This is China’s century.

Now:  Multiple wars, battles, skirmishes and police actions with two major foreign base camps (Iraq and Afghanistan); massive and growing deficits and about a 12.3 Trillion dollar National Debt; zero private-sector employment gain and zero economic gain for the average family over the decade; and no industry to inflate other than the federal government industrial complex.

[See the “e-ssays” dated Jan. 5, 2009 titled “The Millennium to Date”; dated October 6, 2008 titled “A Bleak Day:  The Trillion Dollar Tragedy”; dated September 29, 2008 titled “Futile Efforts”; dated May 4, 2009 titled “Picking the Supreme Beings”; dated May 14, 2007 titled “Term Limits”; and dated Jan. 30, 2006 titled “Greenspan’s Legacy:  Apres moi, Le Meltdown.”]

Bumper stickers of the week:

The Recession is Over.

The Recession is Over; Let the Depression Begin

Halcyon Ano Nuevo

The Audacity of Afghanistan (Dec. 7, 2009)

Posted in Afghanistan, China, Foreign Policy, Iran, Iraq, Military, O'Bama on December 7, 2009 by e-commentary.org

. . .

“We can’t leave and we can’t stay.  But we must leave, because we can’t afford to stay.  But we must stay, because we can’t afford to leave.”

“The graveyard of empires will be the graveyard of the American Empire.”

“And of many American kids.”

“At least in ‘Nam, the long shoreline allowed the Navy to provide much needed cover deep into the jungle.  The ‘stans are all remote caves and stone quarries.  We haven’t even started bombing and yet the whole place looks like it already has been bombed back to the Stone Age.  Charlie could move among a few countries.  Now they can move around the world.  My concern is not that we are signaling when we may leave in 2011, my concern is that they have ample notice to move to another theater.  The world is their stage.”

“The real concern is Pakistan and the Bomb.  And oil.  They don’t want anyone to deploy the bomb or to divert the oil.”

“And no real support on the home front again.  The populace is so disconnected from the sacrifice.  I don’t think I detested anything more than that draft.  The only way to bring the effort home is to reinstate the evil draft rather than the poverty draft.  It still steams me that even with the draft in place cowards like Cheney, Bush, Giuliani and the chicken hawks dodged the draft and then got to deploy kids off to get killed.”

“It’s all about the Bomb and oil.  The only possible way to fund the American effort is to quit funding their effort.  Implement the Terrorist Tax on fuel.”

“You have gotta pay to play.”

“Yet it comes back to the Bomb.  That remains the problem.  They got it.  The surge in Iraq was not military, it was economic.  The surge was a splurge of dollars to buy and bribe the locals for a cessation of violence for a short period of time.  The bribes worked.  The additional troops were incidental and marginal to the military effort, yet served honorably as the paymasters.  In Afghanistan, the US cannot begin to bribe all the tribal leaders and followers and buy peace.”

“The villagers are no different than the villagers in ‘Nam.  They are just trying to get through the day.  At night, when the US leaves, they receive visitors.  They need protection from their own.”

“The US is borrowing money from a very problematic source, China, to put troops in Afghanistan to influence activities in Pakistan so that Pakistan does not deploy the Bomb on India.  The US cannot ask for or accept Indian troops to be stationed anywhere near Pakistan soil, yet a few rupees to support the cause are in order.  Now Iran is bracketed by US troops on both sides, yet the US cannot afford to pay for the grand endeavor much longer.  The tactic mistakenly described as ‘terrorism’ is a greater threat to Europe than to the US, yet the Europeans are not making a commensurate contribution.”

“And because the American people are not making any sacrifices, they are not invested in the discussion.”

“We cannot afford to maintain the American Empire.  Pass the Terrorist Tax.  When the first Bomb is deployed, admittedly a few things will change.”

. . .

Bumper sticker of the week:

Vietnam:  LBJ’s ‘Nam;

Iraq:  Bush’s ‘Nam; and

Afghanistan:  O’Bama’s ‘Nam

McNamara (July 13, 2009)

Posted in Foreign Policy on July 13, 2009 by e-commentary.org

His last name forever will be associated with one word:  the Southeast Asia War Games.  He knew the Truth in 1965 and only had to live it.  Confronting President Johnson required superhuman and monumental strength, courage and tenacity.  McNamara could have sat down and pounded and pounded and pounded and pounded on Johnson, politely.  And he would have been pounded and pounded and pounded and pounded on by Johnson, impolitely.  The personal and professional downside to McNamara viewed in the right light is even promising; Johnson could have McNamara fired but not shot.  If Johnson had threatened to fire him, McNamara could have tendered a resignation letter.  “Bob, what’s happened to you?”  “Mister President, after consulting many others inside and outside this administration and reflecting for a considerable period of time on this matter, I became and remain convinced that our current strategy in Vietnam is counterproductive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . “

That’s just not the way it is done.  He waited a generation – 30 years – until 1995 to confess his error and along the way condemned a generation to death and despair.  Fathers and mothers lost sons and daughters; brothers and sisters lost sisters and brothers; etc. lost etc.

The Best and the Brightest in America were and are really the Clever and the Connected.  “Smart” in America is too often defined as someone who can successfully lie, cheat and steal and score an estate with a helipad and stables and then a political sinecure or worse a critical post.  Success is simply about succeeding at any costs usually to someone else and almost always to society.  The profitable universities are the farm system and the training grounds.  All the gilded books and pretty poems on Truth and Beauty and Beauty and Truth that McNamara had the good fortune to ingest were just so much pulp.  The Harvard M.B.A. was a harbinger of harmful things to come.

When his avatar, Donald Rumsfeld, appeared and spouted the same message of death and violence, the nation embraced it with little reflection or reservation.  One can say with a high degree of confidence, as McNamara once prefaced his pronouncements, that the next Donald McNamara/Robert Rumsfeld is being groomed and polished for success by America’s public and private institutions as we speak.

Bumper sticker of the week:

Wrong, terribly wrong

The Odd Couple – China & The U. of S.A. (January 12, 2009)

Posted in China, Economics, Foreign Policy on January 12, 2009 by e-commentary.org

Felix “China” Unger and Oscar “Uncle Sam” Madison are living together in a symbiotic/parasitic relationship.  In recent years, some pundit types said that the economies of the world are “decoupled” from the United States.  Some other types were skeptical.  The economies always seemed “coupled.”

Those who argued that the U.S. no longer produces any goods for export do not recognize the toxic commercial instruments foisted on the world over the last half dozen years.  And the world bought it.  And bought them.

China produces the goods and the money to buy the goods.  The U.S. consumes the goods and the money to acquire the goods.  Projections about the Trillion dollar domestic bailouts spurring enough economic activity to drive the American economy and begin satisfying the growing national Debt are delusional.  The U.S. will never pay off its national Debt.  [See the e-ssay dated January 17, 2005 entitled “America the Bankrupt:  Economics 210 in the Land of the Freeway and the Home of the Wave.”]

How will China (and Japan, England, and other creditor countries) respond?  Is the U.S. “too big to fail” or more subtly “too intertwined to fail.”  What if no other country or consortium of countries is in an economic position to rescue the U.S. economy or forgive its debt in later years?

Bumper stickers of the week:

We are all in this alone together

China – Shop (and let your currency float)

USA – Stop (shopping despite what others command)

Invest or Invade? (December 15, 2008)

Posted in China, Foreign Policy, Russia on December 15, 2008 by e-commentary.org

World War II involved a skirmish between and among the world’s Type A personalities (USA, Britain, France, Russia, Germany, Japan).  One of the central messages of that War is that it is much easier to take by investment than by invasion.  The Germans and the Japanese learned that lesson well.  The Chinese seem to be embracing the “invasion by investment” strategy and may find the need to invade the USA mooted if they can acquire this country in the open market or in Bankruptcy Court.

The Russians have come full circle and won a few battles in the continuing Cold War because their natural gas heats European homes.  Russia has successfully invaded Europe by investment.  Pipelines are mightier that troop lines.  Russia owns part of Europe.  The Russians, however, are reverting to the old paradigm.  They want to invade.  They may want to invade because the US has been quietly antagonizing Russia.  Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld broke the military that may not be able to respond.  American is sliding into “second world super power” status.  Problems are on the horizon.

Bumper sticker of the week:

Invasion by investment

Imposing The Draft . . . At State (November 19, 2007)

Posted in Draft, Foreign Policy on November 19, 2007 by e-commentary.org

Imposing the Front Door Draft will ignite the State U’s (Universities) from inaction into action.  Imposing the Draft at the State Department is igniting a backlash.  During the prior Iraq-like misadventure (Vietnam), a posting to Ho Chi Minh City (then Saigon) was a plum assignment for a young and ambitious FSO (Foreign Service Officer) (e.g. A. Lake or R. Holbrooke).  Now, the State Department may need to conscript FSOs to outfit the Baghdad Alamo Embassy.  Those who are in a position to know what is happening know what is happening.

Bumper sticker of the week:

Hell, no, we won’t go

Black Hawk Down. And Down and Down And Down (February 5, 2007)

Posted in Bush, Foreign Policy, Global Warming, Iraq, Military on February 5, 2007 by e-commentary.org

A fourth American helicopter was shot down or crashed under fire in the last two weeks.  The Iraqis are now emboldened and have figured out how to evade the evasive measures undertaken by the American helicopters.  [See the concern raised in the e-ssay dated September 25, 2006.]

The decision by the Chinese to blast the satellite a few weeks ago is another ominous threat particularly because the officials most likely to oversee such an action indicated that they were not aware of the decision to launch.  Things may be out of control over there also.

The recent declassified version of the “National Intelligence Estimate” offers another bleak analysis of the quagmire in Iraq.  The situation is deteriorating and requiring more graves.

A soldier killed in a roadside bombing was the 100th British death attributed to hostile action since the invasion in 2003, according to the Ministry of Defense.  American deaths are one or two away from 3100.

One reader noted that more horses than soldiers were killed and wounded in the Charge of the Light Brigade.  The horses are the unnamed Iraqis whose deaths are unacknowledged if not disregarded.  The Barbaros of the battlefield.

Congress is debating a resolution that may express its resolve, yet Bush will not detour from his collision course.  It is time to take a stand.  Young kids are dying while old men (and women) debate and dawdle.

Congressman John Conyers (D-NY), the new chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, announced that he will soon hold hearings on President Bush’s use of presidential signing statements.  [See the concern raised in the e-ssay dated May 22, 2006 and the article entitled “Who’s Afraid of Presidential Signing Orders” by Stanley Fish in the February 4, 2007 edition of “The New York Times”]. 

A recent executive order requires each agency to establish a “regulatory policy office run by a political appointee” that “strengthens the hand of the White House in shaping rules that have, in the past, often been generated by civil servants and scientific experts.”  The agencies are becoming outposts of the White House.  Someone should monitor the organization charts for later repair.

The trial of I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby is intriguing and filled with intrigue.  Truth may emerge.  Some justice may be done.  A Bush pardon?  Stay tuned.

“Man is impacting the environment.”–The science jocks.  Now the economists, moral philosophers and the public must join the debate.
 
Bumper sticker of the week:

War is not working

[Molly Ivins died on January 31.  Her last column “Stand Up Against The Surge” is available at

www.creators.com/opinion/molly-ivins/stand-up-against-the-surge.html.  She concludes in part:  “We are the people who run this country.  We are the deciders.  And every single day, every single one of us needs to step outside and take some action to help stop this war.  Raise hell.  Think of something to make the ridiculous look ridiculous.  Make our troops know we’re for them and trying to get them out of there.  Hit the streets to protest Bush’s proposed surge.  If you can, go to the peace march in Washington on Jan. 27.  We need people in the streets, banging pots and pans and demanding, ‘Stop it, now!'”]

Spiraling Into The Dirt (October 2, 2006)

Posted in Bush, Foreign Policy, Iraq, Torture on October 2, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Congress approved Bush’s efforts to encourage terrorists to torture Americans.  [See the e-ssay dated January 31, 2005 “Bush:  Torture our kids, s’il vous plait”].  America has now effectively repudiated key provisions of the Geneva Conventions and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaties, treaties that served America well in the past.

Bob Woodward chronicles the tortuous haranguing in the House of Hubris in his book, State of Denial:  Bush at War, Part III.  Parts I and II missed the material finally coalesced and analyzed in Part III.  Bush always intended to invade Iraq.  His invasion on March 19, 2003 triggered World War III.  That war continues to expand in ways that are not fully comprehended.  There are two overriding concerns in the White House:  1) do not draw any comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam, and 2) do not use the phrase “civil war” under any circumstances.  [See the e-ssay dated March 6, 2006 entitled “Support Our Troops . . . Return” and the e-ssay dated March 20, 2006 entitled “The (Unreal) March Madness.”]

Forbes Magazine’s 400 richest Americans is constituted only of those worth a billion ($1,000,000,000.00).  No one is worth a billion dollars.  A single family home can now be had for $100,000,000.00 ($100 million).  Even if one can obtain a no-interest loan to purchase one of these abodes, the monthly payment exceeds the recommended 30 percent limit of monthly income that a prudent person should commit to housing.  Almost everyone is already spending too much for housing every month.  And yet median household earnings are flat.

The stock market is going through the roof.  There are not as many new roofs going up nationwide.  The declining housing market will reduce the “wealth effect” that individuals feel when the value of their home rises which will reduce consumer spending which will depress the stock market in the near future.

Nobel Prize recipients are announced this week.  They are worth a million.  There are still individuals out there contributing to the public good.

Is the GOP now the Gay Old Party or the Grand Old Pedophiles?  Too many contemporary Republicans seek to get into one’s bedroom.  Too many Republicans cannot be left alone with children of either gender.  We do not need to take a page from the Republicans; we need to take all the pages from the Republicans.  Congressman Foley (R) is not an exception.  Slow the terrorism against kids.

Bumper sticker of the week:

January 21, 2009

End of an Error

Staying the Collision Course In Iraq and The Mid-East (September 25, 2006)

Posted in Bush, Foreign Policy, Iraq, Middle East on September 25, 2006 by e-commentary.org

The U.S. invasion of Iraq has increased, not decreased, the terror threat, according to the “National Intelligence Estimate” on “Trends in global Terrorism” released in the New York Times yesterday.  The U.S. has taken the fight to them; they have taken the fight to us.

American forces are becoming fragmented in various deployments within Iraq.  At some later date, they may be able to hide in the fortresses being built throughout Iraq.  Halliburton/KBR are building Fort Dick, Fort Condi, Fort Rummy, and Fort Wolfie.  Until they can hide, the Americans may be overrun in some outposts and left without supplies or reinforcements.  America can mount a Berlin Airlift to provide some support for some time, but not forever.

Black Hawk Down writ large may develop.  America may be forced to flee Iraq whether the civilian military leadership decides to cut and run or is forced to cut and run.  Squads and platoons may not make the departing flights.  Recall Saigon in April, 1975.  The prospect of a humiliating defeat and hasty departure grows every day.  America must declare victory and redeploy with purposeful dignity to friendlier soil or the United States.  The collective military must go on r & r to have any chance of projecting a military and a diplomatic presence in the region and in the world in the near future.

There is no end to the unexpected twists and unintended consequences in the Mideast.  Baghdad could become Hussein City in the next ten years.  Tourists may have their picture taken in front of the plinth that supported the Saddam statue.  The son or daughter of an Iraqi refuge may be the valedictorian at West Point.  Or more likely Iraq will be divided with regions incorporated into the Shiite Caliphate and into the Sunni Caliphate and into an expanded Kurdistan region.  The United States should not try to dictate the future in Iraq because it can not dictate the future in Iraq.  The world will watch Americas defeat on CNN and tape it on TiVo.  It is time to think clearly.  It is time to get out.

Still Off Course (September 18, 2006)

Posted in Bush, Foreign Policy on September 18, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Osama bin Laden is a creative genius.  He should be in prison or off the stage by now rather than gallivanting around freely as a free-lance film maker regularly mocking America and the West.  However, there seems to be no way to dispatch him without also vesting him with martyrdom.  When he is dispatched or disappears, another Osama will arise.  Our collective effort to provide security does not present any easy or rational choices.  The United States must avoid making bad choices. 

Someone observed that invading Iraq after 9/11 was akin to invading Belize after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.  In the movie “Animal House,” John Belushi rallied his troops by asking rhetorically whether the Americans gave up after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.  The Americans just will not give up bombing.  A brave military is mired down because of the incompetent civilian policy makers.  Very few Americans could tell the difference between McNamara and McRummy even if their 8 by 10 glossies were placed side-by-side on the tv screen.  Rummy and his gang are making analogies to World War II rather than more apt references to Vietnam.  The sages suggest that when you are in a hole, quit digging.  However, the chicken hawks keep digging.  The troops are digging in and becoming easy targets.  Black Hawk Down writ large is on the radar.      

More of the world hates America now than it did five years ago.  Many of those who hate America will act on their hatred.  We as a country are so much more vulnerable and far less prepared than we were five years ago.

Sign in the window of a bungalow in middle America:

Our troops are sitting ducks!

Do not listen to a lame duck!!

Bring our troops home!!! 

[Consider reading the essay “An Alternate 9/11 History” by Jonathan Alter in the September 18 issue of “Newsweek” for a discussion of what could have been.]