Archive for the Federal Reserve Category

The Command Economy Is Failing;  Cease Fiddling . . . With Interest Rates.  Oh, And Happy Constitution Day! (September 16, 2024)

Posted in Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Interest Rates, Unemployment on September 16, 2024 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “Commissar Powell of the Central Planning Committee is directly setting monetary policy and by default substantially shaping fiscal policy.  I never thought I would say that a free market sounds downright liberating.”

J          “Our July discussion about the cooked unemployment and inflation figures is on the money.  They are proceeding from knowingly inaccurate and misleading information and cannot reach the right answer.”

K          “An accurate calculation and evaluation of the facts and figures and understanding of our circumstances would compel a continuation of the current interest rate.  The real economy is either in recession or ready to slide into recession.”

. . .

J          “The Fed is concerned about the compounding interest on the national debt that must be financed day in and day out and the maturing debt on commercial real estate that must be refinanced in the next few quarters.  The Fed is setting policy to protect the well-connected sectors.  As it always does.”

K          “The Fed is owned by the banks and the owners of the Fed do not want their borrowers defaulting when there is mucho money to be made refinancing the loans.”

. . .

K          “The Fed in practice responds to almost every usually self-inflicted crises by transferring trillions to the billionaires.”

J          “And they exacerbate income inequality almost as a matter of policy and with gross impunity.”

. . .

J          “By keeping interest rates so low in the past, the Fed has knowingly punished and harmed honest and hardworking individuals who seek less risk and desire a historically reasonable rate of return on their money.”

K          “By reducing interest rates, inflation will rise even more and partially inflate away the debt.”

. . .

K          “The Fed should announce that interest rates shall remain unchanged for three years.  That is a historically sound rate.  Let the consequences follow.  If there is economic pain, now is the time to address and accommodate the pain.”

J          “Humans do not relinquish power.  They have too much fun tinkering with the rates and playing with the public.”

K          “Agree.  Even this strategic and long term approach would be undermined because the Fed and the Treasury are still able to engage in all manner of machinations to expand and contract liquidity.”

J          “At least make them do so without messing directly with interest rates.  It is time to confront the can.”

. . .

[See the e-commentary at the Categories “Federal Reserve” and “Interest Rates” and other related e-commentary.]

Bumper stickers of the week:

It is time to confront the can

Cease fiddling

Revisiting “Does Any Institution In America Function? Oh, And Happy Friday The 13th! (December 9, 2019)” Four Years Later (December 11, 2023)

Posted in Academia, Civil Rights/Civil Liberties, Congress, Courts, Federal Reserve, Journalism on December 11, 2023 by e-commentary.org

. . .

J          “In the last four years?  Too many institutions are failing with each passing year.”

K          “Since our last discussion, the American Civil Liberties Union has gone off the rails and opted to fail.  Yet they have maintained their defense of some civil liberties.”

. . .

K          “The courts are increasingly militarized and weaponized war zones.  The major political crime families prosecute and persecute their opponents in the name of ‘Le Law’ before hand-picked and cooperative judges.”

J          “It depends on the court.  Count me a fan of the recent Colorado Supreme Court decision.”

. . .

J          “I agree the Federal Reserve is failing faster and may now have undermined all credibility and lost control of the economy.  That frank recognition does not inspire confidence.”

K          “End the Fed, they said.  Mend the Fed, I said.  End the Fed, I recently said.”

J          “A lawyer is heading the Fed.  I am uncomfortable with a lawyer heading the Fed.  I am also uncomfortable with a lawyer heading the Department of Just-Us.  And I am uncomfortable with an economist heading the Fed.  An English major should head the Fed.  Calculated obfuscation and willful misdirection should be eschewed and verboten, I say.” 

. . .

J          “You still nurturing your cavil with the MSM.”

K          “Still deeply troubled by the wholesale lack of integrity and independence.”

. . .

K          “For decades, I gave Academia a pass.  Academia has earned a failing grade.  I noted to someone recently that Harvard is ‘half a hedge fund and half a hustle’.  Think Eric Hoffer.  Are they going to refer to it as the Harvard Zuckerberg College of Arts and Sciences or the Harvard Gates College of Art and Sciences.  To distinguish their graduates.  Or warn others.”

J          “All of the profitable universities adhere to the same business plan.  There is not much difference.  Massive bloated bureaucracies of useless administrators pursuing petty grievances and protecting patches of turf rather than developing and analyzing doctrines, notions, ideas, hypothesis, and tentative conclusions and challenging others to do the same.  Some of the mascots are clever.”

. . . 

[See the e-commentary at Fourth Annual Noble Prize In Jurisprudence (October 21, 2019) awarding the Noble Prize in Jurisprudence to the ACLU.  See the discussion of the ACLU’s failure in the face of a fundamental challenge to civil liberties in Korematsu Two; And The ACLU Endorses It! (September 6, 2021).  The state of journalism is discussed at Read, But Don’t Read (June 26, 2023), Is Tucker Carlson The Walter Cronkite Of Our Day? (July 17, 2023), 2024 Pulitzer In “Breaking News Reporting” And “Investigative Reporting News”:  Jeff Gerth And The Columbia Journalism Review / Kyle Pope (March 13, 2023) and Eighth Annual Pushitzer Prize In Commentary For 2023 (May 8, 2023).  The courts  are discussed at Weaponizing The Judiciary: Democratic Prosecutors + Democratic Judges; Republican Prosecutors + Republican Judges:  Bad Math, Very Bad Math (December 4, 2023) and The Government Stumbles; The Judicial Legislature Rumbles (October 2, 2023).  Academia was discussed years ago at “Adjunktification” In The S.I.C. (Schooling Industrial Complex) (March 13, 2017) and The “Intellectual Infrastructure Investment Act” (“III”)  Oh, And Happy Valentine’s Day! (February 11, 2019).E-con-omists and e-cono-omics are discussed at Wandering E-con-omists:  The Travels And Travails Of E-con-omic Sciences (November 4, 2019).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

“We now live in a nation where doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the press destroys information, religion destroys morals, and our banks destroy our economy.”  Chris Hedges

“Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.”  Eric Hoffer

DNC = RNC = WWP

The Ultimate Monopolist, The Federal Reserve, Dictates Economic Policy; The Surviving Monopolists Dictate Price And Quality (February 6, 2023)

Posted in Economy, Federal Reserve on February 6, 2023 by e-commentary.org

. . .

J          “The Federal Reserve has an almost absolute and certainly unconstitutional monopoly on economic policy in America.  Congress has abandoned its policy and oversight duties and only spends money that does not exist.  America is a command economy with an unelected cabal of buffoons many with a high school mentality sporting ‘piled higher and deeper degrees’ making fundamental decisions about investment, production, distribution and income determination in secret by decree.  The scheme and the scam have not served the public well.  So there you have it.”

. . .

K          “Eighty-nine percent of Americans think we live in a free market economy.  Over the last two decades, I have watched industry after industry after industry after industry after industry after industry taken over by one major player.  Never have as many industries been as monopolized by one major player as they are today.  That results in higher prices, lower quality and fewer innovations.  So there you have it.”

. . .

[See the book “Goliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracy” by Matt Stoller and “A tale of two worlds” by Alasdair Macleod in “Goldmoney.com” dated February 1, 2023.]

[See the e-commentary on monopoly almost a dozen years ago at On Freedom and Liberty (May 24, 2010) and the e-ssay even more years ago reflecting on the greatest institutional threat at Who Is Your Big Bad Bogeyman? (March 26, 2007).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

The bigger the top, the bigger the pop

So there you have it

The Envelope, Please:  Dramedy Of The Year For 2022:  The Federal Funds Fiasco (January 30, 2023)

Posted in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates on January 30, 2023 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “In a runaway vote, the ‘Federal Funds Fiasco’ show was voted the best new dramedy of the year for 2022.”

J          “The Katzenjammer Kids merge with the Keystone Cops.  And the nightmare was renewed for another season this year.”

. . .

J          “When Powell was up for reappointment, the public saw some visible signs of infighting spill and spew out.  What is clear is that the members of the Federal Reserve itself are using the positions to further enrich themselves to the detriment of the public.  The corruption is cancerous.” 

. . .

K          “Spoiler alert.  Some plot twists are in the works.  The current rate hikes have produced negative effects, yet the real effects – negative and possibly positive – lag by six to nine to twelve months and have yet to manifest.  The calm before the storm.  And because the current price rises are a supply side problem not a monetary phenomenon, the rate increases will do little to slay or even stay inflation.  Real inflation for real folks is and will really remain over at least eight percent throughout this year.  And no one believes that the Fed can raise the rates higher than six percent without breaking the entire economy into shreds and shards.”

J          “Some reality twists are in the works.  The coming recession may slow inflation, yet folks must drive and eat and shelter and live.  They may drive less, but they will continue to eat and shelter and live.”

. . .

J          “Wall Street subsists on and then front runs inside information.  For decades, the conventional wisdom was ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ and roll with the largesse.  The strategy worked even for little folks.  Today, Wall Street is actively running from and resisting what appears to be the settled policy of the Fed.  Two powerful entities running in opposite directions are primed to collide.”    

. . .

J          “Stay tuned.”

K          “The popcorn, por favor.”

. . .

[See “Rural Americans aren’t included in inflation figures – and for them, the cost of living may be rising faster” by Stephan Weiler and Tessa Conroy in “The Conversation” dated January 27, 2023.]

[See the e-commentary discussing inflation in detail and noting almost two years ago that the inflation was and is not “transitory” at Is Inflation Inflating!?!? (April 26, 2021) and assessing the current economic dilemma at The Great Checkmate And The Great Seesaw: Interesting Rates (April 11, 2022).  See also Interning For Clio:  Collecting, Protecting And Preserving The Record (April 4, 2022) and Covid-19 PanICdemic/Plague:  Basically, Back To Basics:  Finding Food; Printing Rutabagas.  Happy Earth Day! (April 20, 2020).] 

Bumper stickers of the week:

WIN  [Wipe Inflation Not So Soon]

Flight the Fed?

2023:  Inexorable and Immanent? (January 2, 2023)

Posted in Economics, Economy, Federal Reserve on January 2, 2023 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place.”

J          “The Fed is caught between a hard place and a rock.”

. . .

K          “Uneasy.  Very uneasy.”

J          “Not easy.  Very not easy.”

. . .

K          “The excitement I expected in 2022 looks like it festered and percolated last year.  This year the festering and percolating brew may explode with consequence.”

J          “It could be consequential.”

. . .    

K          “Is this the year?”

J          “They will manage to punt making any big decisions and kick the can down the road and limp the economy along.  They always do.  At least so far.  To date.”

. . .

[See the e-commentary at Twenty Sixteen (January 4, 2016) and The Great Checkmate And The Great Seesaw: Interesting Rates (April 11, 2022).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Lord, give me coffee to change the things I can change and wine to accept the things I can’t.

Coffee and friends:  A perfect blend.

Wine improves with age.  I improve with wine.

“The Fed will defend the PetroDollar and the world’s reserve currency status no matter how much the stock market crashes, no matter how much the bond market crashes, no matter how much the housing market crashes and no matter how much the economy crashes.” ???  Oh, And Happy Halloween! (October 31, 2022)

Posted in Federal Reserve, Petrodollar on October 31, 2022 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “That is saying something.  Spooky.”

J          “I’ll say.  Scary.”

. . .

K          “The Federal Funds Rate is being raised more than I ever thought possible.”

J          “The Federal Funds Rate is being raised more than I ever thought possible.”

. . .

K          “Increasing the interest rate will do very little to reduce inflation because real inflation is about double the rate reported by the government.  No one is suggesting that the Fed can raise rates to fifteen percent under any scenario.  If the stock market and bond market are sacrificed, perhaps 30 percent of the population will be impacted.  If the housing market is sacrificed, perhaps 67 percent of the population who own homes and another 9 percent who are now priced out of home ownership will be impacted.”

J          “If the economy is sacrificed, perhaps 100 percent of the population will be impacted. While they are raising interest rates, money is being poured into the economy. Imagine a pump drawing water out of a pool and another pump dumping water into the pool.”

. . .

J          “The PetroDollar is akin to the life blood of the United States body economic.  The stock market, the bond market, the housing market and the economy are akin to the organs.  The periphery is being sacrificed to protect the core.  That is how an organism responds to threat and stress.”

K          “The Federal Reserve is trying to staunch the bleeding.  Without the PetroDollar, the US is not.”

. . .

K          “World War E / World War III is not helping. The US must discipline if not destroy its economic colonies to protect itself.  The UK, Germany, France and other colonies do not realize that they are the target.  The vassals are the victims.  The Euro and the pound sterling must be broken.  They are being and will be broken. And then throw in the currencies of emerging markets that are being creamed.”

J          “The US has to destroy the world village in order to save itself.”    

. . .

K          “The PetroDollar is backed by Fe and Pb not by Au or Ag.  The US military has perpetuated the war against the world since 1945.”

J          “And the Fed is taking up the sword.” 

. . .

J          “We shall see.”

K          “We shall see.”

. . .

[See “Why financial approaches won’t fix the world’s economic problems this time” at Our Finite World dated October 18, 2022 by Gail Tverberg.]

[See recent April e-commentary at The Great Checkmate And The Great Seesaw: Interesting Rates (April 11, 2022), Interning For Clio:  Collecting, Protecting And Preserving The Record (April 4, 2022), Is Inflation Inflating!?!? (April 26, 2021) and Covid-19 PanICdemic/Plague:  Basically, Back To Basics:  Finding Food; Printing Rutabagas.  Happy Earth Day! (April 20, 2020).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Costco Kirkland precooked bacon is $17.99

You can print money, but you cannot print rutabagas

My electric car is powered by dirty coal

The US has to destroy the world village in order to save itself

“Sheep spend their whole lives living in fear of the wolf only to be eaten by the shepherd.”  Proverb

Housing Collapsing Again.  And Then Again In 2029 (May 23, 2022)

Posted in Federal Reserve, Housing, Interest Rates on May 23, 2022 by e-commentary.org

.  .  .

K          “Not again.”

J          “Again.  And then again in 2029.”

.  .  .

K          “Today the interest rate drives about 86 percent of the decision to purchase a house; the Fed dictates interest rates.  The ‘Wealth Effect’ that arises when one’s paper worth rises substantially drives about 13 percent of the decision; the Fed has distorted and inflated the paper worth of assets to stratospheric and unsustainable levels.  The desire by a few astute characters to rebalance their net worth into real estate drives about 1 percent of the decision; the Fed has distorted the relative value of assets and confounded the balancing act.  Those three drivers are decelerating and will soon crash stupendously.”

J          “Carve out about 17 to 23 percent for those folks who were cooped up and want a bigger coop.  Buckets of ‘helicopter money’ were fluttering and floating around without a home in the hands of folks who want a bigger one.  At the Fed’s direction, interest rates are going up, one’s paper worth is going down, and housing may be too large a percentage of one’s net worth.  However, the value of one’s real estate holdings may remain proportionate because the value of one’s paper worth is also declining.  Someone who had a million dollars in assets and a million dollar home may end up with six hundred thousand dollars in assets and a six hundred thousand dollar home.  And be cured of the deceptive and deleterious ‘Wealth Effect’ that often drives one to be less wealthy in the intermediate run.”

.  .  .

K          “Again.”

J          “And again.”

.  .  .

[See the e-commentary at Housing:  Another Bubble Blown By Criminally Low Interest Rates (August 24, 2020) providing a treatise on housing, Housing Again (October 8, 2007) discussing the anatomy of a house, America the Bankrupt: Economics 210 in the Land of the Freeway and the Home of the Wave (January 17, 2005) discussing the “Hyperdive” decline in the economy that is percolating, When the Bubbles Burst (December 4, 2006) discussing the macroeconomic and microeconomic consequences of the housing market collapse when all tools and manipulations finally fail and The Dow Jones (the Murdoch ?) Hits 14 K In A Hollow Economy (July 23, 2007) discussing the decline in the stock market that has been successfully delayed for fifteen years but cannot be avoided forever.]

Bumper sticker of the week:

Again

The Great Checkmate And The Great Seesaw: Interesting Rates (April 11, 2022)

Posted in Federal Reserve, Great Checkmate, Inflation, Interest Rates, Recession, Stagflation on April 11, 2022 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “I doubt the Fed will be able to increase 150 basis points [1.5%] this year before the economic pain is so great that they will be forced to flood the market with free money for the wealthy and exacerbate the obscene wealth divide.”

J          “200 total basis points [2%].  I’ll go big.  I cannot see them raising rates to a total of 250 or even 225 basis points.  If they also start the ‘quantitative tightening’ at the same time, they will suffocate the markets.”

. . .

J          “Some say we will get ‘deflation’ and others say we will get ‘inflation’ without being specific.  We talked years ago about the deflation of bubble assets and the inflation of necessities that continues to get more distended and pronounced every day.”

K          “As I recall, last April we recognized that inflation was permanent and was not transitory.  The Fed did not shed the word ‘transitory’ until December.”

. . .

K          “The self-inflicted Great Checkmate is inescapable.  They say the bond market is about twice the value of the stock market.  They say the equity market is about fifty trillion dollars.  They say the gross domestic product of the United States is about twenty trillion dollars.  If the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate to provide a reasonable return to bond holders and to attempt to throttle inflation, then the stock market will fall, the housing market will fold its tent, and the federal government will strain to pay the interest on the national debt.”

J          “The Great Checkmate is the Great Seesaw.  The economy is allowed to teeter and then the economy is allowed to totter.  The next year will be quite a roller coaster ride.  Let’s compare notes at the end of the year.”

. . .

[See the “The Coming Global Financial Revolution: Russia Is Following the American Playbook” in “The Web of Debt” dated April 5, 2022 by Ellen Brown, the recipient of the Third Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 8, 2018); consider the discussion of some of the possible changes and consequences of World War E in “The commodity currency revolution” in “Goldmoney” dated April 7, 2022 by Alasdair Macleod.]

[See the e-commentary at Careening Toward A Global Totalitarian Authoritarian Behemoth?  And Then There Is The Fed’s Self-Inflicted Great Checkmate. (January 3, 2022), Third Annual Noble Prize In Eco-nomics (October 8, 2018), Economics And Finance:  Girls v. Boys (June 4, 2018) and Gas / Au / Ag / Cu: The Great Commodity / Currency Wars: What’s Up? What’s Down? What’s Really Up? What’s Going Down? (November 17, 2014).]

Bumper stickers of the week:

Dragon < Eagle > Bruin; Dragon + Bruin > Eagle; Eagle + Bruin > Dragon

Free Assange Journalism is not a crime

“The geopolitical war also distracts attention from the urgent agenda of climate change, especially in light of recent indicators of global warming causing climate experts to be further alarmed.  Other matter of global concern including migration, biodiversity, poverty and apartheid are being again relegated to the back burners of global policy challenge, while the sociopathic game of Armageddon Roulette is being played without taking species wellbeing and survival into account, continuing the lethal recklessness that began the day the bomb was dropped on Hiroshima more than 75 years ago.

In concluding, the question ‘why Ukraine?’ calls for answers.  The standard answer of reverse racism, moral hypocrisy, and Western narrative control is not wrong but significantly incomplete if it does not include the geopolitical war that, while not now directly responsible for Ukrainian suffering, is from other perspectives more dangerous and destructive than that awful traditional war.  This geopolitical war of ‘poor’ choice is now being waged mainly by means of hostile propaganda, but also weapons and supplies while not killing directly outside of Ukraine.

This second war, so rarely identified much less assessed, is irresponsibly menacing the wellbeing of tens of millions of civilians around the world while arms dealers, post-conflict construction companies, and civilian and uniformed militarists exult.  To be provocative, I would say that it is time for the peace movement to make sure that the US loses this geopolitical war!  To win it, even persisting with it, would constitute a grave ‘geopolitical crime.’”  Richard Falk

Careening Toward A Global Totalitarian Authoritarian Behemoth?  And Then There Is The Fed’s Self-Inflicted Great Checkmate (January 3, 2022)

Posted in Covid / Coronavirus, Federal Reserve, Vaccine on January 3, 2022 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “2021 was worse than 2020.  2022 will be worse than 2021.  2022 may be a year of consequence in the ‘Post-Consequence World’ that imposes no culpability on the culpable and no responsibility on the responsible.”

J          “Not this year.  The system will continue to trudge and trundle along.  No one will be held to account.  Everyone in power is making money fist over hand.”

. . .

K          “With inflation inflating, the Fed’s self-inflicted Great Checkmate cannot be deferred.  If the Fed were stalemated, they could sit tight, but they are in check at this time.  If the fools at the Fed had any sense of etiquette, they would resign before being publicly checkmated or at least be honest with the public.”

J          “The Fed is playing a simple-minded game of checkers in an economy that is not black and red.  They have the one overriding move that can be taken at any time and taken over and over and over again.  They are able to print unlimited dollars.”

. . .

K          “The transition from the Pandemic to the Endemic is a political and an economic challenge, not an epidemiological problem.  However, there is no money in the early treatment and prevention of the Big C-19, so it will not be treated and prevented.  That reality cannot change without much more public awareness and action.” 

J          “One word – Le Vaccine.  The Supremes will provide some guidance on Friday and in the coming week.”

. . .

[See the e-commentary at Twenty Sixteen (January 4, 2016)”.]

Bumper stickers of the week:

A pandemic of the vaccinated.

A pandemic of the unvaccinated.

Ailing, Failing, Wailing And Bailing (September 27, 2021)

Posted in Bail In, Bailout/Bribe, Cryptocurrency, Federal Reserve, Inflation on September 27, 2021 by e-commentary.org

. . .

K          “The financial and economic system is insolvent not just illiquid.  That will not endure.”

J          “They can and will continue to print their way down Primrose Lane and kick the debt can down the highway.  If any entity is ailing or failing, it can always start wailing and the Federal Reserve will start bailing.”

. . .

J          “We will know that Bitcoin has arrived when the government bails out the holders of Bitcoin.”

. . .    

K          “These things happen in October.”

J          “Not going to happen.  Perhaps next October.”

K          “You’re probably right.  Let’s compare notes.  On Halloween.  This year.”

. .  .

[See the e-commentary at “Is Inflation Inflating!?!? (April 26, 2021)”, “Covid-19 PanICdemic/Plague:  Basically, Back To Basics:  Finding Food; Printing Rutabagas.  Happy Earth Day! (April 20, 2020)”, “Covid-19: BAU v. BAU (February 24, 2020)”, “Twenty Sixteen (January 4, 2016)” and “They Can Print Money (November 2, 2015)”.]

Bumper sticker of the week:

A system that cannot go on forever will not go on forever