The (Unreal) March Madness (March 20, 2006)

Posted in Iraq, Military on March 20, 2006 by e-commentary.org

On March 19, 2003, Bush unilaterally declared World War III.  Three years have passed, almost 2300 U.S. troops are dead, and nearly $300,000,000,000.00 ($300 Billion) is being looted from unborn Americans to fund the daily costs.  The long-term economic costs (more grenades; long-term health care) of Operation Iraqi Liberation may reach 3 Trillion, not counting the psychological toll on all Americans.  Bush’s recent “National Security Report” declares “America is at war.”  A war Bush triggered. 

After September 11, 2001, the American people wanted revenge.  Bush gladly obliged.  The country deserved focused leadership to confront unknown, dangerous and organized threats.  The response should have been carefully considered and comprehensive diplomatic and military efforts.  Bush nurtured some ill-defined animosity toward Iraq and launched the Crusades for no good reason and many bad ones.  By April 1, 2003, Bush should have realized that the U.S. military defeat of the Iraqi Cub Scouts did not prove a point or advance an interest.  We were fooled again.  By then, the military was mired down and served only to provide a common enemy to unite the three warring factions (Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites) in a campaign to repel the American invaders.  The three factions now seem capable of conducting a civil war while driving out the invaders.  Bush’s Crusades have drawn attention and resources away from the real threats and undermined America’s military options in other countries and regions.  The exeunt from Iraq may require intervention by others, perhaps by an emboldened international coalition challenging the rogue American nation.  In the next phase of WW III, the theater may move to Iran.  March Madness continues.

Dubai Ports World: The Ship Storm (March 13, 2006)

Posted in Economics, Foreign Policy, Market Solutions on March 13, 2006 by e-commentary.org

America and its allies must encourage other countries, particularly Arab countries, to embrace capitalism and participate in the world economy.  The most competitive economic player, Dubai Ports World, was set to take over terminal operations at some of America’s busiest ports.  Bush could have done a more nuanced job anticipating the reaction and introducing the development to the American people.  The reaction of many Americans to the sale was unfortunate but not surprising.  Leaders, however, should lead, not pander.  The one time in recent memory when the Democrats and Republicans in Congress stood up to Bush was the one time when they should have stood tall with him.  Two of the 9/11 terrorists appear to have had connections to Dubai.  There is less chance of an attack on an American port by someone from Dubai if someone from Dubai is assisting in operating it.  Free trade and economic interdependence promote peace.  America made an egregious mistake and forfeited a promising opportunity to build an economic link to the Arab world.  America committed a self-inflicted terrorist act by burning a bridge it should have built.

Support Our Troops . . . Return (March 6, 2006)

Posted in Iraq, Military on March 6, 2006 by e-commentary.org

[A Zogby poll last week found that even the troops support our troops return.]

“At least in Vietnam, Bush had an exit strategy.”  In Iraq, Bush never even had a viable entrance strategy.  In Vietnam, two countries divided by colonists sought to unite into one people, despite Johnson’s and Nixon’s wishes.  In Iraq, three people inhabiting one nation concocted by colonists seek to divide into three countries, despite Bush’s wishes.  America should refrain from imposing its ill-fated whims upon the world when neither the security nor well-being of the United States or its allies is at stake.  Self-determination is a Wilsonian principle.  Let the Iraqis decide.  Support our troops . . . return.  The emerging fear this week is that the troops will be deployed to Iran rather than repatriated to America.

The Arithmetic of Futility (February 27, 2006)

Posted in Iraq, Military on February 27, 2006 by e-commentary.org

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the three dead service men.”

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the eleven dead service men.”

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the twenty nine dead service men.”

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the fifty four dead service men.”

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the eighty dead service men.”

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the one hundred and one dead service men.”

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the one hundred and twenty four dead service men.”

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the one hundred and eighty two dead service men.”

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the two hundred and seventeen dead service men.”

. . . . . . . . . .

“We need to continue fighting to vindicate the deaths of the nine thousand six hundred and forty five dead service men.” 

Perjury, The American Way (February 20, 2006)

Posted in Law, Perjury/Dishonesty, Society on February 20, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Hundreds of thousands of American swear every day to: “tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth,” and then consciously don’t.  They may tell the truth and may tell nothing but the truth, but they don’t tell the whole truth.  They are counseled beforehand not to tell the whole truth.  They are counseled to lie.  That practice does not vary in any state or federal court in the Republic.  Lying is formally institutionalized.  Alberto “Torture Boy” Gonzales continued the long and storied American tradition.  In his confirmation hearings on January 6, 2005, the following exchange occurred:

SPECTER: Thank you very much, Senator Salazar.

Judge Gonzales, would you now stand for the administration of the oath? Raise your right hand.

Do you solemnly swear that the testimony you will give before the Senate Judiciary Committee will be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help you God?

GONZALES: I do.

SPECTER: Would you begin, Judge Gonzales, by introducing your beautiful family?

During the questioning, Senator Feingold (D-Wis.) inquired into whether the president could authorize warrantless wiretapping of U.S. citizens.  In response, Torture Boy discounted the possibility and diverted Congress’ attention by referring to the matter as a “hypothetical situation” at a time when it was a settled practice of the president.  The whole truth?  He lied, but he is in power so lying is de rigueur.  Perjury is the American Way.

[See Carol D. Leonnig, “Gonzales Is Challenged On Wiretaps,” The Washington Post, January 31, 2006, page A07.]

California Prisons Explode Again (February 13, 2006)

Posted in Law, Politics, Prison/Criminology, Supreme Court on February 13, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Almost a year after Johnson v. California was issued by the Supremes, the California prison system exploded again.  [See the February 28, 2005 e-ssay entitled “The Courts, the California prison experiment and the Y Chromosome.”]  Prisoners fight and fornicate.  The legal issue is black and white (and brown).  Prisoners of all stripes uniformly requested to be segregated.  The jury has spoken.  Respect the jury.  Separate the prisoners.

Federalism Distorted (February 6, 2006)

Posted in Law, Politics, Supreme Court on February 6, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Federalism questions – those involving the interplay of federal and state law – are determined by ideology not principle or doctrine.  When a state desires to allow a citizen to use medical marijuana, the Right embraces federal law limitations to preclude individual choice because the Right dislikes dope.  When a state offers to allow and regulate assisted suicide, the Right embraces federal law limitations to preclude individual choice because the Right decides who gets to decide.  However, when the federal government respects a fundamental right that is anathema to the Right’s agenda, the Right disregards the commerce clause and other constitutional safeguards and embraces states’ rights to trump the federal provision and rights.  These are the rules of the game.  The rule of law has been replaced by the law of rules.

Greenspan’s Legacy – Apres moi, Le Meltdown (January 30, 2006)

Posted in Bernanke, Economics, Federal Reserve, Greenspan, Housing on January 30, 2006 by e-commentary.org

In March, 2000, the economy began the well-publicized high tech slide.  Manufacturing and services continued to flee the country.  Technology was a transitional industry, but the best minds were disproportionately and increasingly foreign; too many of the goods and services could be and are being manufactured and provided overseas.  As one bubble burst, however, another one was being blown.  Only one remaining domestic industry existed that could also be subsidized effectively – the real estate industrial complex.  The Fed provided the steroids.  Interest rates (the Federal Funds Rate) were precipitously reduced which significantly undermined the retirement income for those retirees (born before 1935) who relied on interest income to support them during their golden years; sacrifices have to be made.

American land, American land owners, American (and Canadian) timber, American (and Hispanic) labor, American builders, American real estate agents, American appraisers, American surveyors, American bankers, and American candle stick makers all profited handsomely.  The land perforce cannot be moved offshore, the houses cannot be built overseas economically, and most of the players, with a few exceptions, cannot be outsourced.  Between 2001 and 2005, the construction trades and the financial and real estate service sectors provided seventy percent of the economic growth in America.  Yet the largest share of the real money to construct the house of cards was foreign-born.  Americans don’t own their homes today; foreigners own their homes and rent them to Americans.  The Fed should have issued stronger warnings and recommended Congressional action to supervise the spew of credit; in the face of inevitable inaction, the Fed should have corked the champagne in the summer of 2003 by bumping up the interest rates.  [See the April 25, 2005 e-ssay entitled “Our Friend the Fed.”]  As the market peaked in the summer of 2005, however, increasingly marginal economic candidates were seduced by intoxicating no-money-down/interest only/adjustable rate mortgages to enter a hyper-inflated market.  The homes were ATM’s which provided the consumer spending that drove the economy for four profligate years.  [See the February 7, 2005 e-ssay entitled “The Microeconomics of Suburban Subsistence.”]  The “wealth effect” engendered by the growing equity in homes encouraged more spending on credit.  The homes are now occupied by “renters” who are consuming a growing percentage of their income just to service the interest payments.  The savings rate predictably went down in 2005 for the first time since 1933. Something is in the cards; the house of cards will collapse by Christmas.  It could not go on forever; as many have observed, what cannot go on forever will not go on forever.  The last viable domestic industry has now run its course with devastating consequences.  And now the country is left with vast numbers of McMansions that will soon cost too much to heat.

Ben Bernanke may be Bush’s most promising appointment.  However, he will inherit a mess beyond repair or management.  There is no industry in America left to subsidize.  With consumers and the country up to their tonsils in debt, consumer spending is and will be inadequate to drive the economy.  Foreigners will quietly reduce their purchases of t-bills and demand more return for their remaining investment in dollars.  The growing demand for oil is occurring at a time when the supply may be interrupted by some unstable or unfriendly regimes.  Rising oil prices will drive up the producer and the consumer price indexes.  Not raising interest rates will allow inflation to soar.  Raising interest rates to check inflation will stall the collapsing economy.  The Fed is likely to raise interest rates to 5.0 percent to check inflation even though the economy is entering a period of “stagflation.”

Amtrak – The (Rail) Road to National Security (January 23, 2006)

Posted in Politics, Transportation on January 23, 2006 by e-commentary.org

The right assails Amtrak because it is uneconomical; the left criticizes Amtrak because it is inefficient.  When one airplane is grounded by a shoulder-mounted SAM (surface to air missile), all the commercial and general aviation airports in the country will be closed.  Transportation by air will be prohibited; the aviation network is inextricably intertwined.  By then, with gasoline priced at, say, $10.00 a gallon, transportation by automobile will be prohibitively expensive.  Someone will observe that if we still had Amtrak, we would have a relatively safe and comparatively economical and efficient way to transport people and goods.  Any threat to one line could be quarantined while most of the remaining tracks are operated albeit with some delay and inconvenience.  The railroad system is extricably intertwined.  Worth considering.

King (January 16, 2006)

Posted in Law, Race, Society on January 16, 2006 by e-commentary.org

King offered the non-violent vision at a time when frustration was fomenting violence.  Others fomenting violence made the non-violent course of action more appealing.  The non-violent avenue is more likely to overcome in a society that tolerates free speech and protects due process.  The success of King was as much a product of his determined and incremental challenge to American apartheid as it was of the resilience of American society to respond to his challenge to injustice.