China, The 800(0) Lb. Panda (November 20, 2006)

Posted in China on November 20, 2006 by e-commentary.org

As a consequence of WW II, Germany and Japan learned that it is easier to take by investment than by invasion.  China is learning that it is easy to take by investment.  China also is preparing for but may never need to mount an invasion.  China may elect to foreclose on its investment when the United States is unable or unwilling to challenge an invasion.

The United States refights its past wars (Vietnam, WW II).  Other countries learn from them.

[Milton Friedman passed away on November 16.  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke observed:  “Among economic scholars, Milton Friedman had no peer.  The direct and indirect influences of his thinking on contemporary monetary economics would be difficult to overstate.  Just as important, in his humane and engaging way, Milton conveyed to millions an understanding of the economic benefits of free, competitive markets, as well as the close connection that economic freedoms bear to other types of liberty.  He will be sorely missed.”] 

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Hope Triumphs (November 13, 2006)

Posted in Elections on November 13, 2006 by e-commentary.org

God bless the American voters.  Enough voters last Tuesday said that enough is more than enough.

The public witnessed looting in Baghdad and looting in Washington.  The Republicans emphasized national security and the Democrats focused on the failed war in Iraq.  Exit polls indicate that the public elected to challenge “corruption” among those in Washington who got America involved in Iraq and enmeshed in other scandals domestic.

Fear almost always triumphs over hope.  On Tuesday, the fear of Bush triumphed over the fear pandered by Bush.  Bush could not even muster the image of the devil incarnate, Osama bin Laden, to triumph over the public’s fears of him and his failed policies.  Bush was not even able to muster fear by raising the specter of the antichrist, a granny named Nancy Pelosi, assuming a position of power.  Hope triumphed.

The good people of Minnesota’s Fifth District made an election heard ’round the world.  Endorsing Keith Ellison, the first Muslim elected to Congress, is a compelling statement to the world of America’s fundamental decency and inclusiveness.

Harold Ford, Jr. and Tammy Duckworth, stay in the fray.  You are still needed.

After the thumpin’, the most incompetent Commander-in-Chief in American history relieved the most incompetent Secretary of Defense in American history of his mismanagement of the worst foreign policy blunder in American history.  Progress happens.

Bridges should not be burned; bridges to nowhere should not be built.  The Democrats are reaching out and building bridges to the Republicans.  The Republic will benefit from that political infrastructure.

The Supreme Court may be safe.

The Democrats now have an opportunity to fail or flourish.  Time will tell.

Bumper sticker of the week:

A woman’s place is in the House
. . . and in the Senate

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Vote (November 6, 2006)

Posted in Elections on November 6, 2006 by e-commentary.org

George Carlin, the comedian and political philosopher, refuses to vote.  Samuel Beckett, the dramatist, novelist and playwright, rarely if ever voted.  Anthony Downs, the political theorist and economist, suggested that it may not be rational for an individual to vote. 

Is voting a joke, absurd or irrational?  Some recent elections have been rigged.  One of the vote counters–Diebold, the manufacturer of the voting machines–is run by a Bush supporter.  Support efforts to unrig elections.  And vote so that the only way to steal an election from the populace is to steal it.  Stealing all elections is much harder to accomplish than stealing a few.

Many VFW (Veterans of Foreign Wars) posts observe that “Freedom Is Not Free.”  Thomas Jefferson, the guy on the two dollar bill, observed that the “price of freedom is constant vigilance.”  Voting is vigilance.  Pay the price to be free.  Vote. 

Election Day should be a holiday.  Vote.  And vote to celebrate Veterans Day every even-numbered year on Election Day to celebrate the veterans who made and make it possible to vote.  As the Canadian philosopher Wayne Gretzky once observed:  “You miss 100 % of the shots you don’t take.”

Bumper stickers of the week:

My vote cancels your vote

Don’t blame me, I voted for __________

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Gettysburg and Iraq (October 30, 2006)

Posted in Iraq on October 30, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Imagine if the French had marched onto the battlefield at Gettysburg to impose order.  “Mon dieu, mon ami, how dare you fight.”  The Blue and the Gray would have united and turned on the invaders in a New York minute.  The leaders of both sides went to the same school (West Point) and were versed in the tactics and strategy of Jomini (and perhaps Clausewitz).  The boys would have coordinated a campaign to drive the French all the way back to a strip mall south of Marseille.  Then the brothers would have gotten back to the business of engaging in an unnecessary but somehow inevitable civil war.  [See the e-ssay dated April 17, 2006 entitled “The Virtues of an Iraqi Civil War.”].

The United States cannot stop the sectarian violence/civil war in Iraq even with a million troops.  The United States is training troops and police who will disperse and join their respective sects in the great Iraqi civil war.  All of them are attending “East Point” in Baghdad and later will be fighting against each other.  They will be reading from the same page, our page.   

Bush told us that we needed to take the war to them; they took it to us and are taking it to us.  Sports metaphors are a Republican favorite.  Fighting in a distant country sounds plausible, but why fight an away game?  The game in Iraq has slowly sapped America’s resources and will to fight.  The military card has been played and played out.  Now a million man march is underway bringing a million broken men and women back to the home front.  The retreat will have tremendous negative consequences for the military and thus the country for another generation.

The argument against immediate withdrawal is that the Terrorists are a united group of individuals conducting weekly board meetings according to Robert’s Rules of Order.  If “we” tell “them” when “we” are going to leave, “they” will pass a resolution to wait until “we” leave to start causing trouble.  The Terrorists are not at all concerned about American timetables.  They continue to attack the Crusader without delay or discouragement.  Someone in the region observed that the West has all the clocks and they (Terrorists/Insurgents/Separatists/Jihadists/Provincial War Lords/Freedom Fighters) have all the time.  That reality is unacceptable to Americans, so they don’t accept it.

Bush cannot figure out if “they” hate freedom or if “they” love freedom.  They seek order.  They endured a form of totalitarian order for decades.  The consequences of the American Crusade were predicted and remain predictable.  America created disorder and can do nothing to create order.  A continued American presence will only perpetuate and inflame the disorder. 

Some say that Europe never recovered completely after World War I.  America will never recover completely after Bush’s World War III, regardless of its outcome.  The only road to partial recovery is to redeploy American troops from Iraq. 

Bumper sticker of the week:

If you’re not appalled, you’re not paying attention  

[See the Essay entitled “The Way Out Of War” by George S. McGovern and William R. Polk in the October, 2006 issue of Harper’s Magazine.] 

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Efficient Health Care: Making American Business More Competitive (October 23, 2006)

Posted in Health Care, Market Solutions on October 23, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Charles Wilson, the General Motors executive who became a Secretary of Defense in the Eisenhower Administration, was asked if as Secretary he could make a decision adverse to the interests of his then-current employer.  He answered affirmatively but added that he could not believe that he would confront such a situation “because for years I thought what was good for the country was good for General Motors and vice versa.”  The response has been translated into the popular observation: “What’s good for General Motors is good for the country.”

What’s bad for GM is bad for the country.  The cost of health care is crippling American business.  The lack of health care is crippling individual Americans and undermining the family.  Resorting to bankruptcy in the face of overwhelming medical bills imposes a tremendous cost on society.  To make American companies competitive with companies in other countries, American companies should be relieved of providing and paying for health care.  This proposal represents a major departure from the settled practice since the end of World War II.  However, the market has failed.  The six or seven hundred private insurance companies deliver inadequate health care coverage to an insufficient percentage of the population.  The inefficient government is the most efficient provider.

In debates over free trade, some commentators note that foreign nations are assisting their domestic corporations by providing health care.  This competitive advantage rarely is calculated into discussions about tariffs and trade policy.  The Democrats should unite with GM to provide a rational and efficient national health care program.  Imagine the reaction if the United States Chamber of Commerce proposed an efficient national health care program?  Imagine.

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Bankruptcy Deform Is A Year Old (October 16, 2006)

Posted in Bankruptcy, Health Care on October 16, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Bankruptcy reform is now celebrating the one-year anniversary of the effective date of its major provisions on October 17.  The legislation is implicitly premised on the assumption that the debtors’ attorneys were engaged in systematic fraud.  The legislation is also implicitly premised on the assumption that the Bankruptcy Judges were aiding and abetting the systematic fraud.  The assumptions are often not unfounded.  No matter how often Congress changes the Bankruptcy Code, however, it cannot change the Bankruptcy Courts.  The “Forum for Fraud” responds by developing new practices and folkways to circumvent the new rules and provisions.  Bankruptcy judges soon may bestow the “Judge Lifland Award” on the bankruptcy judge who is able to delivery the largest percentage of estate assets to the debtors bankruptcy counsel in a calendar year.  Congress responded by disregarding the input of bankruptcy judges and bankruptcy law professors.  This is not all good.  Everyone should be heard.

Congress capitulated to the wishes of the credit industry which substantially created the problem by mainlining credit to individuals who were and are not credit-worthy.  Easy credit is the crack cocaine of the middle class.  In addition, the credit crack dealers bury many  provisions in the fine print that are like improvised explosive devises designed to explode in the face of a consumer who makes one financial misstep.

The Founding Padres included an express provision to create some undefined bankruptcy protection because of concerns about debtors prisons then in existence in England.  The Republic needs a Code to address the debts of the honest but unfortunate debtor.  Uninsured medical expenses, loss of a job, or a divorce overwhelm even two pay check households that are often one missed pay check away from financial abyss.  America has an extremely inefficient national health insurance program codified in Title 11 of the United States Code, namely the Bankruptcy Code.  National health insurance with a single payer should be codified in Title 42 addressing health and welfare issues.  As a country, America is getting out of the business of producing anything which results unsurprisingly in the loss of American jobs.  Getting married is a money-saving undertaking; getting divorced is an expensive ordeal.  As they say, marriage is grand; divorce is one hundred grand.  The troika of troubles can swamp anyone.

The New Code passed by the Republicans is intended simply to make the process more bureaucratic and expensive; why more bureaucratic?  The New Code makes it more expensive for those individuals with no money to file bankruptcy.  The New Code is tied to some Internal Revenue Code provisions.  No new legislation should be tied to the IRS Code in any way because it requires major overhaul.  The last major revision of the Bankruptcy Code was undertaken in 1978.  With all the other growing problems, Congress is not likely even to pass some technical corrections to the New Code in the next ten years.  The safety net is shredded.

Bumper sticker of the week:

Happiness is a positive cash flow.

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North Korea: Still Imploding (October 9, 2006)

Posted in China, North Korea on October 9, 2006 by e-commentary.org

North Korea is explosive.  The smoke has not cleared on the recent event in North Korea.  The fallout is uncertain.  In 2002, Bush decided to threaten and provoke three countries which were doing little good but did not require taunts Iraq, Iran and North Korea.  Bush’s “Axis of Evil” tirade in the State of the Union speech in January, 2002 polarized countries that needed to be engaged.  Bush of all people should understand North Korea’s Kim Jong Il because they are similar personalities, although each lacks the ability to understand other world views.  In 2003, Bush proceeded to implement long-simmering plans to invade the wrong country and destabilize the world.  Both Iran and North Korea responded rationally to a direct threat and pursued the only promising course of action under the circumstances.  They accelerated their development of the Bomb.  [See the e-ssay dated March 27 entitled “The ‘Bush Doctrine’ In Foreign Policy.”]  The Bomb compels respect.

A country should pursue one unwavering policy toward its friends and towards its enemies talk, talk, talk.  Bush willfully alienates America’s friends and steadfastly refuses to speak to its enemies.  Bush has played the military card and undermined a military response other than one delivered incompletely by air.  Diplomatic responses may not be effective because now they can be disregarded.  North Korea does not rely on United States dollars because it simply prints them and provides counterfeit currency to the world.  If North Korea cannot obtain foreign aid and support, it will simply sell nuclear technology for cash.

China may put pressure on North Korea by withholding oil.  However, China is increasingly obtaining its oil from Iran.  Bush’s likely effete response to North Korea will embolden Iran.  Iran may put pressure on China.  And all the pundits are asserting that Iraq is not like Vietnam because it only has only two vowels in its name rather than three.

The most prudent policy may be to engage in nation building without toppling the ruling regime.  If there were some way to by pass the ruling elite and get food to the North Korean masses, the United States could buy popular support.  Any viable approach, however, requires direct dialogue and respect.  Respect for others, however, requires self-respect.

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Spiraling Into The Dirt (October 2, 2006)

Posted in Bush, Foreign Policy, Iraq, Torture on October 2, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Congress approved Bush’s efforts to encourage terrorists to torture Americans.  [See the e-ssay dated January 31, 2005 “Bush:  Torture our kids, s’il vous plait”].  America has now effectively repudiated key provisions of the Geneva Conventions and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaties, treaties that served America well in the past.

Bob Woodward chronicles the tortuous haranguing in the House of Hubris in his book, State of Denial:  Bush at War, Part III.  Parts I and II missed the material finally coalesced and analyzed in Part III.  Bush always intended to invade Iraq.  His invasion on March 19, 2003 triggered World War III.  That war continues to expand in ways that are not fully comprehended.  There are two overriding concerns in the White House:  1) do not draw any comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam, and 2) do not use the phrase “civil war” under any circumstances.  [See the e-ssay dated March 6, 2006 entitled “Support Our Troops . . . Return” and the e-ssay dated March 20, 2006 entitled “The (Unreal) March Madness.”]

Forbes Magazine’s 400 richest Americans is constituted only of those worth a billion ($1,000,000,000.00).  No one is worth a billion dollars.  A single family home can now be had for $100,000,000.00 ($100 million).  Even if one can obtain a no-interest loan to purchase one of these abodes, the monthly payment exceeds the recommended 30 percent limit of monthly income that a prudent person should commit to housing.  Almost everyone is already spending too much for housing every month.  And yet median household earnings are flat.

The stock market is going through the roof.  There are not as many new roofs going up nationwide.  The declining housing market will reduce the “wealth effect” that individuals feel when the value of their home rises which will reduce consumer spending which will depress the stock market in the near future.

Nobel Prize recipients are announced this week.  They are worth a million.  There are still individuals out there contributing to the public good.

Is the GOP now the Gay Old Party or the Grand Old Pedophiles?  Too many contemporary Republicans seek to get into one’s bedroom.  Too many Republicans cannot be left alone with children of either gender.  We do not need to take a page from the Republicans; we need to take all the pages from the Republicans.  Congressman Foley (R) is not an exception.  Slow the terrorism against kids.

Bumper sticker of the week:

January 21, 2009

End of an Error

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Staying the Collision Course In Iraq and The Mid-East (September 25, 2006)

Posted in Bush, Foreign Policy, Iraq, Middle East on September 25, 2006 by e-commentary.org

The U.S. invasion of Iraq has increased, not decreased, the terror threat, according to the “National Intelligence Estimate” on “Trends in global Terrorism” released in the New York Times yesterday.  The U.S. has taken the fight to them; they have taken the fight to us.

American forces are becoming fragmented in various deployments within Iraq.  At some later date, they may be able to hide in the fortresses being built throughout Iraq.  Halliburton/KBR are building Fort Dick, Fort Condi, Fort Rummy, and Fort Wolfie.  Until they can hide, the Americans may be overrun in some outposts and left without supplies or reinforcements.  America can mount a Berlin Airlift to provide some support for some time, but not forever.

Black Hawk Down writ large may develop.  America may be forced to flee Iraq whether the civilian military leadership decides to cut and run or is forced to cut and run.  Squads and platoons may not make the departing flights.  Recall Saigon in April, 1975.  The prospect of a humiliating defeat and hasty departure grows every day.  America must declare victory and redeploy with purposeful dignity to friendlier soil or the United States.  The collective military must go on r & r to have any chance of projecting a military and a diplomatic presence in the region and in the world in the near future.

There is no end to the unexpected twists and unintended consequences in the Mideast.  Baghdad could become Hussein City in the next ten years.  Tourists may have their picture taken in front of the plinth that supported the Saddam statue.  The son or daughter of an Iraqi refuge may be the valedictorian at West Point.  Or more likely Iraq will be divided with regions incorporated into the Shiite Caliphate and into the Sunni Caliphate and into an expanded Kurdistan region.  The United States should not try to dictate the future in Iraq because it can not dictate the future in Iraq.  The world will watch Americas defeat on CNN and tape it on TiVo.  It is time to think clearly.  It is time to get out.

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Still Off Course (September 18, 2006)

Posted in Bush, Foreign Policy on September 18, 2006 by e-commentary.org

Osama bin Laden is a creative genius.  He should be in prison or off the stage by now rather than gallivanting around freely as a free-lance film maker regularly mocking America and the West.  However, there seems to be no way to dispatch him without also vesting him with martyrdom.  When he is dispatched or disappears, another Osama will arise.  Our collective effort to provide security does not present any easy or rational choices.  The United States must avoid making bad choices. 

Someone observed that invading Iraq after 9/11 was akin to invading Belize after the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.  In the movie “Animal House,” John Belushi rallied his troops by asking rhetorically whether the Americans gave up after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.  The Americans just will not give up bombing.  A brave military is mired down because of the incompetent civilian policy makers.  Very few Americans could tell the difference between McNamara and McRummy even if their 8 by 10 glossies were placed side-by-side on the tv screen.  Rummy and his gang are making analogies to World War II rather than more apt references to Vietnam.  The sages suggest that when you are in a hole, quit digging.  However, the chicken hawks keep digging.  The troops are digging in and becoming easy targets.  Black Hawk Down writ large is on the radar.      

More of the world hates America now than it did five years ago.  Many of those who hate America will act on their hatred.  We as a country are so much more vulnerable and far less prepared than we were five years ago.

Sign in the window of a bungalow in middle America:

Our troops are sitting ducks!

Do not listen to a lame duck!!

Bring our troops home!!! 

[Consider reading the essay “An Alternate 9/11 History” by Jonathan Alter in the September 18 issue of “Newsweek” for a discussion of what could have been.] 

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